מדד דאו ג'ונסשורט
For 25 years, indices have followed the action preceding 1929.
Here's a sequence of unlikely seeming coincidences showing how eeirily similar the action over the last 25 years has been the action before the Great Depression.
The 1920s Market Crashes
In the 1920s, there were two significant market crashes, each around 50%. By drawing a Fibonacci extension from the low of the first crash to the high of the second, we see that the top of the roaring 20s and the entry into the Great Depression aligned with a spike out of the 423% Fibonacci level. The market initially reacted to this level, spiking above it and then reversing.
Modern Times Comparison
If we apply the same analysis to the DJI, drawing a Fibonacci extension from the low of the 2000 crash to the high in 2007, we observe a similar pattern in modern times. The DJI is currently spiking above this level, mirroring the behavior seen during the 1920s.
Historical Rally and Current Trends
From the base of the 1920s rally to the peak before the crash, the DJI rose by an impressive 500%. Currently, the DJI is 540% above the 2009 low, showing a similar pattern of significant growth.
Trend Stability and False Crashes
The DJI trend was steady until it reached about 300% above its previous low, at which point it experienced false crashes before skyrocketing to a final high. This pattern is also evident in the current DJI, where instability began in 2018 around the 300% mark above the 2009 low.
Topping Extensions
In the 1920s, drawing a Fibonacci extension from the low to the high before the big false crash revealed that the high was a 2.61 extension. The same pattern appears in the 2019 rally.
Projected Downside Levels
The 1929 crash began with a 50% drop, followed by a 40% rally to retest the break level. If the DJI today experienced a similar 40% drop, it would likely see a significant rally to retest the break level. This historical comparison provides a framework for anticipating future market movements and potential recovery scenarios.
Full Downtrend Extensions
In the Great Depression, the DJI fell to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous crash low to the all-time high. Today's DJI would likely exhibit similar behavior if a major downturn occurred, providing a historical basis for forecasting potential market lows during significant downtrends.
Final Extensions
The drop in the DJI during the Great Depression would go to the 3.20 Fibonacci level. This would spike under the lows of the previous crashes that the mighty rally had come out of.
Were the DJI of today to make a similar extension, this would also project a low just a little under the 2009 low.
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That's a lot of coincidences.
The 1920s Market Crashes
In the 1920s, there were two significant market crashes, each around 50%. By drawing a Fibonacci extension from the low of the first crash to the high of the second, we see that the top of the roaring 20s and the entry into the Great Depression aligned with a spike out of the 423% Fibonacci level. The market initially reacted to this level, spiking above it and then reversing.
Modern Times Comparison
If we apply the same analysis to the DJI, drawing a Fibonacci extension from the low of the 2000 crash to the high in 2007, we observe a similar pattern in modern times. The DJI is currently spiking above this level, mirroring the behavior seen during the 1920s.
Historical Rally and Current Trends
From the base of the 1920s rally to the peak before the crash, the DJI rose by an impressive 500%. Currently, the DJI is 540% above the 2009 low, showing a similar pattern of significant growth.
Trend Stability and False Crashes
The DJI trend was steady until it reached about 300% above its previous low, at which point it experienced false crashes before skyrocketing to a final high. This pattern is also evident in the current DJI, where instability began in 2018 around the 300% mark above the 2009 low.
Topping Extensions
In the 1920s, drawing a Fibonacci extension from the low to the high before the big false crash revealed that the high was a 2.61 extension. The same pattern appears in the 2019 rally.
Projected Downside Levels
The 1929 crash began with a 50% drop, followed by a 40% rally to retest the break level. If the DJI today experienced a similar 40% drop, it would likely see a significant rally to retest the break level. This historical comparison provides a framework for anticipating future market movements and potential recovery scenarios.
Full Downtrend Extensions
In the Great Depression, the DJI fell to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous crash low to the all-time high. Today's DJI would likely exhibit similar behavior if a major downturn occurred, providing a historical basis for forecasting potential market lows during significant downtrends.
Final Extensions
The drop in the DJI during the Great Depression would go to the 3.20 Fibonacci level. This would spike under the lows of the previous crashes that the mighty rally had come out of.
Were the DJI of today to make a similar extension, this would also project a low just a little under the 2009 low.
=====
That's a lot of coincidences.
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