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Dow Transport: Ready for new All Time Highs

מעודכן

A Falling Wedge is a bullish continuation pattern. If this pattern might be confirmed in the next trading days than the next move will be up.

If ever you follow the Dow Theorie than a new All Time High in the Dow Transportation Index will confirm any new Allt Time High in the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

An if you see in this minutes how the Dow is running than you might see that it´s still only a matter or "when" the Dow jumps about 20k and not "if".

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Today:
Southwest Airlines Stock jumps 2,9% toward record close after December operations update.
Alaska Air´s stock surges 5,3% toward record aber December operations update.

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Quote: January 10, 2017, 11:49 A.M. ET

Why Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus is Good for Airline Stocks

On the campaign train, Donald Trump promised that he’d engage in major fiscal stimulus to help boost the U.S. economy. We’re still waiting for details–but Deutsche Bank’s Michael Linenberg and team aren’t waiting to get more bullish on airlines, especially domestic ones like Southwest Airlines (LUV), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), and Alaska Air Group (ALK). They explain why:

Source: blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2017/01/10/why-trumps-fiscal-stimulus-is-good-for-airline-stocks/

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"Falling Wedge ----> "Continuation" pattern (not "reversal pattern" as written in the Chart). I apologize for this mistake.

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DJT: Rising Wedge ---> break

90efcf5696fb6d91896e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_f862c4af42fd5cbda3317a1bbf2fec4e.png

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DJT: Falling Wedge ---> break (not falling wedge)

90efcf5696fb6d91896e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_f862c4af42fd5cbda3317a1bbf2fec4e.png

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DJT looks like to have a perfect set up for some very strong trading days to the upside. The falling wedge was broken clearly and today we could see a re-test and pull back from the downtrendline of this continuation pattern.

90efcf5696fb6d91896e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_b8fe285b51866330953af9ec68e3e371.png

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SPX also shows probably a continuation pattern as well (bull flagg) - and it looks a little bit like a "stealth" correction pattern.
90efcf5696fb6d91896e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_eba66aade35b3cb03647085efada3c30.png

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Comp: Todays Pattern is also really impressive:

The bears tried to get control about the Comp and it would had been easy to trigger more selling. But finally the Comp is again above this upper trendline of a rising wedge which usally will end as an reversal pattern. If ever this won´t happen than the next move will be impressive and will go to the up side.

90efcf5696fb6d91896e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_8a0857eab54fede256ca5a4335ab7bc4.png

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Quote:

‘Sell the inauguration’ speculation is stock-market ‘nonsense,’ says Wall Street bull

Published: Jan 14, 2017 2:15 p.m. ET

Expectations for at least a near-term stock-market correction once Donald Trump takes the presidential oath of office on Jan. 20 are running high. But one well-known Wall Street analyst argues that investors should shut out the speculation.
In a Friday note, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, observed that, based on client conversations, a number of investors are convinced stocks are set for a “meaningful correction.”
At the same time, he said, those clients aren’t looking for a prolonged bear market, but are instead cooling their heels in hopes that a pullback will offer better buying opportunities, particularly once the odds of Trump’s proposals becoming enacted is more clear.
marketwatch.com/story/sell-the-inauguration-speculation-is-stock-market-nonsense-says-wall-street-bull-2017-01-13

הערה

Check the latest SPX CoT-Report:
wellenreiter-invest.de/Cot-daten/s-und-p-500-index

Large Specs since September 2016 are not able to time the market. The latest numbers are showing that large specs reducing theire net long positions once more.

What does this mean?
wsj.com/articles/billionaire-george-soros-lost-nearly-1-billion-in-weeks-after-trump-election-1484227167

All major US-Indices are close to ATH´s and Hedgefonds are betting for lower stockmarket prices. Any uptick in the SPX cost Millions of US-Dollar. Any suprise might be on the upside still. The downside potential is still limited.

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Gold is breaking now the last uptrend wich i suppose was a coutertrend rally.

invst.ly/33ors
invst.ly/33ost

I am watching Gold as an indikator (fear) to forecast the next upmove for stockmarkets. For me it looks like starting by today this might happen now.

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NASDAQ Future: Close above yesterday intraday high confirms a strong uptrend and also a strong "buy" signal.
invst.ly/33yta

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Watch USDMXN as "fear indicator". If USDMXN goes down, the DJT will go up.

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01/24/2017
Dow Jones Transportaion Index is closing in on an new all time high.

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01/25/2015:
Watch the DJT for new ATH´s to confirm any Dow Rally
invst.ly/350ot

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01/25/2017
Impressive upmove des DJIA. The DJT is going to confirm any DJIA all time high.
invst.ly/35413

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01/26/2017
DJT: New All Time High. If you follow the Dow Theory than todays DJIA ATH is confirmed by the Dow Transportation Index.
invst.ly/35fhl

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Comment: Jan 27 2017

Watch todays Lindsey Grahams comment on twitter

Border security yes, tariffs no. Mexico is 3rd largest trading partner. Any tariff we can levy they can levy. Huge barrier to econ growth /1
1,092 replies 7,528 retweets 14,604 likes
Source: twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/824733324769951744

Simply put, any policy proposal which drives up costs of Corona, tequila, or margaritas is a big-time bad idea. Mucho Sad. (2)
twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/824734113412345856

Now check how many Senators Donald Trump can affort to loose more:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

Lindsey Graham made the point: Not Mexiko is paying "The Wall". It is the U.S. consumer. Guess how many more senators might vote with a "NO".

USDMXN follow this logic for sure. The peso today again strengthen against the US Dollar - no matter what Donald Trump is telling or "repeating".

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Jan 30 2017

Expect a cup & handle pattern for the Transport: invst.ly/36gmp

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Februar 02 2017: U.S. Retailers starts to fight back.

Quote:

Stop the Border Adjustment Tax
Don´t make hard working families pay more on essantiel products

Tell Congress No To The Border Adjustment Tax
Make your voice heard on how this misguided proposal will impact you, your family, and jobs in your local community.

Take Action

Quote: keepamericaaffordable.com/default.aspx

הערה

Feb 03 2017

Expect a cup with handle pattern to be completed soon. Watch the Transport to rise to 10k soon. invst.ly/37co3

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Feb 08 2017 What ever happens in the White House or the Oval Office. Only Minuts or Hours later you can read anything in the news. This never happened before. Here is the reason why:

Quote: The Fix
The leaks coming out of the Trump White House cast the president as a clueless child

All White Houses leak. Sometimes the leaks are big, sometimes small. But there are always people willing to talk to reporters about the “real” story or about why the chief executive made a mistake in regard to some decision he made.

That said, I've never seen so much leaking so quickly — and with such disdain for the president — as I have in the first six days of Donald Trump's presidency.

Two recent examples:

1. This from the New York Times today on Trump's impulsiveness:

Mr. Trump’s advisers say that his frenzied if admittedly impulsive approach appeals to voters because it shows that he is a man of action. Those complaining about his fixation with fictional voter fraud or crowd counts at his inauguration, in their view, are simply seeking ways to undercut his legitimacy.

Yet some of his own advisers also privately worry about his penchant for picking unnecessary fights and drifting off message. They talk about taking away his telephone or canceling his Twitter account, only to be dismissed by a president intent on keeping his own outlets to the world.

2. This from WaPo on Trump's inauguration crowd estimates:

Trump’s advisers suggested that he could push back in a simple tweet. Thomas J. Barrack Jr., a Trump confidant and the chairman of the Presidential Inaugural Committee, offered to deliver a statement addressing the crowd size.

But Trump was adamant, aides said. Over the objections of his aides and advisers — who urged him to focus on policy and the broader goals of his presidency — the new president issued a decree: He wanted a fiery public response, and he wanted it to come from his press secretary.

Time and again, the image of Trump pushed by his “aides” is one of a clueless child — someone who acts on impulse, disregarding the better advice of people who know better. We know he needs to be managed or else he will say and do stupid things, the message seems to be. We're working on it. And what we know about Trump from his presidential campaign is that some of his top staffers — most notably Kellyanne Conway — often communicated to the boss via the media. What that strategy suggests is that Trump is influenced at least as much — and, in truth, likely more — by reading the sniping of his aides on background (meaning without their names attached) in the news than he is by private conversations. That the best way to reach him, change his mind or otherwise bend his ear is through a public airing of grievances. Trump has shown that his tendency to obsessively consume media — especially cable television — is unchanged in the six days since he has become president. He appears to be making policy decisions via things he watches or reads. (Remember Trump's famous/infamous statement that he got his military information and advice “mostly from the shows.”) At odds with all of this, however, is the fact that Trump is both deeply proud and hugely image-conscious. Having to read and watch allegedly loyal “aides” casting him as a sort of feckless child constantly in need of guidance wouldn't seem to be the sort of thing that would sit well with him.

Read more: washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/26/the-leaks-coming-out-the-trump-white-house-cast-the-boss-as-a-clueless-child/?utm_term=.8c00331214f9

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Feb 08 2017: Game Changer: Donald Trump is - probably - going "to fire" Sean Spicer. Expect that he is going to fire Kellyanne Conway next and finally Steve Bannon. You did not believe in any "Trump Holliday"? Be prepared - it´s comming soon and once more the majority of traders - even retail of pro´s - get caught on the wrong foot (the same what we say in our german language as well)

Quote: White House ramping up search for communications director after Spicer's rocky start

By Jim Acosta, CNN Senior White House Correspondent

Updated 0502 GMT (1302 HKT) February 8, 2017
sean spicer dana bash _00030115

Washington (CNN)The White House is ramping up its search for a new communications director in an effort to lighten the load of embattled White House press secretary Sean Spicer, multiple sources told CNN.
A source familiar with internal communications said President Donald Trump is disappointed in Spicer's performance during the first two weeks of the administration.

Spicer has served as both White House press secretary and communications director for the new administration. Those roles are typically filled by two staffers.
Former Trump transition spokesman Jason Miller was originally tapped to serve as communications director for the White House, but Miller stepped aside before Inauguration Day to spend more time with his family.
A longtime Republican operative, Spicer is a close ally of White House chief of staff Reince Priebus. According to the source close to the hiring process, Trump is upset with Priebus over the selection of Spicer for arguably the administration's most visible position, next to the President.

Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/02/07/politics/sean-spicer-white-house-communications/index.html

הערה

Feb 09 2017: Cup & Handle Pattern likely to complete in the next 3-4 trading days: invst.ly/38nkn

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Feb 09 2017 Quote: Why Trump might play nice with Japan’s Abe

Published: Feb 9, 2017 5:04 p.m. ET

The White House is describing President Donald Trump’s plan to host Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his golf resort in Florida as a “gift,” a day ahead of the meeting in Washington between the two leaders. “That is a gift that the president is extending to the prime minister,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters Thursday about the planned weekend visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Abe and Trump are due to have talks at the White House Friday and the two are scheduled to travel together to the Palm Beach resort afterward. Questions have arisen about the ethics of the trip. Experts cited by The Wall Street Journal said the most appropriate option would be for Trump to host Abe at Mar-a-Lago as his guest, if Japanese government ethics rules permit. Source: marketwatch.com/story/mar-a-lago-visit-a-gift-to-abe-from-trump-white-house-says-2017-02-09

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Feb 09 2017: New All Time Highs for SPX, Comp & DJIA

Quote: Trump tax talk lifts Wall Street to record high
Stock Markets1 hour ago (Feb 09, 2017 04:32PM ET)

By Lewis Krauskopf

(Reuters) - Wall Street's three main indexes surged to fresh record highs on Thursday after President Donald Trump said he would make a major tax announcement in a few weeks. "Lowering the overall tax burden on American business is big league," Trump said during a White House meeting with airline industry executives. He gave no indication of what the announcement might entail.
The benchmark S&P 500 has rallied 7.9 percent since Trump's Nov. 8 election amid expectations he will usher in lower corporate taxes, but also reduce regulations and increase infrastructure spending. The rally had stagnated in recent days as investors sought details about Trump's policy agenda. Financials (SPSY), which have soared since the election, were the best-performing group, up 1.4 percent after three sessions of declines, while energy shares (SPNY) gained 0.9 percent. Those sectors stand to benefit should lower taxes spur economic activity as interest rates and the demand for energy rise, said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank, in Cleveland. “Given the groups that responded and the enthusiasms within the market, it seems to be the tax comments that lit off the rally today," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank, in Cleveland. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 118.06 points, or 0.59 percent, to 20,172.4, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 13.2 points, or 0.58 percent, to 2,307.87 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 32.73 points, or 0.58 percent, to 5,715.18.

All three indexes closed at all-time highs.

Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-rise-with-earnings-in-focus-458908

הערה

Feb 10 2017 DJT cup & handle pattern almost completed invst.ly/39040

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Comment: FEB 13 2017 Wall St. set to extend record run as 'Trump trade' rekindles
Stock Markets38 minutes ago (Feb 13, 2017 08:44AM ET)
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st.-set-to-extend-record-run-as-'trump-trade'-rekindles-459544

הערה

Feb 13 2017: Cup & Handle Pattern completed invst.ly/39gg4

עסקה פעילה

Trade active, please click on the chart for latest updates:

Dow Jones Transportation Index: Aus dem Stand auf neues ATH

עסקה פעילה

DJT: Trade still active but will be closed in the next tradingdays or at least in 2-4 weeks.

SwissView

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