🚀 Bitcoin ~ Seeking the Weekly Higher Low

6 בפבר׳ 2023

Hello! I am enTHUZed an educator specializing in the Strength Trading System.

🚀 BTC is showing the first signs of Bearish Price Acceleration since the January 12th parabolic short squeeze. Hourly oversold conditions have marked the daily higher lows 3 times since the Bull Rip: on January 18th, 25th, & 30th. It is different this time since BTC has lost dynamic support of the 12h 12 EMA , 6h 21 EMA , and 45m 200 EMA. Price is now seeking 2h 200 EMA dynamic support at 3h oversold conditions (less than 32%). We have been scouting a potential weekly higher low at 4h oversold conditions. If the current price action is the first clue to weekly consolidation, suggesting the weekly highs are set, it is important to note BTC must find a local low, bounce to a lower high relative to 24.3K, then proceed to break to daily lower lows below 22.5K. Otherwise the BTC daily uptrend remains intact. Please keep in mind the March 2022 weekly “Bull Fake Out” which took 62 days to play out and pushed 46% off the lows prior to leading to a record 12-week pullback and bear market lower lows. Bigger picture we continue to ask ourselves the question… “Is the bear market low set?”.

The Bull Case (Price Action): The June 18th 2022 Super Stack oversold conditions (simultaneously oversold from the weekly to hourly) marked the psychological bear market low and the past 6 months prior to the Bull Rip was the Accumulation Zone between 25K & 15.5K. BTC remains in an uptrend on all higher time frames except the monthly. Since the $15,563 bear market low BTC has broken to weekly higher highs. BTC has pushed up 57% off the lows and in regards to price action is more likely to print a higher low on the next weekly consolidation prior to potentially attempting to confirm a monthly uptrend. Confirmation of a monthly uptrend would be the final step to calling the bear market low set.
📍 Simple Statement: If BTC breaks to monthly higher highs and closes above the weekly 200 EMA (above 25K) it is very likely the Bear Market low for this cycle is set at 15.5K.

The Bear Case (Macroeconomic Fundamentals): The recent bullish price action was the result of a parabolic short squeeze off the lows seeking the weekly 200 EMA and monthly bearish double top at around 25K. Please note the weekly 38% retracement is at 28K. Once the remaining bears are fully liquidated price will resume the monthly downtrend potentially seeking monthly lower lows. The Bulls have proved nothing until price pulls back and prints a weekly higher low. “Don’t fight the FED” terminal interest rates continue to rise. The DXY is currently seeking a monthly higher low and has recently broken to daily higher highs. Both the NAS100 & SPX500 have potentially topped and are currently threating to confirm 4h downtrends. BTC is more likely to follow the traditional market indices on the macro.
📍 Simple Statement: If BTC fails to hold a weekly bullish retracement level (38-50%) during the next weekly consolidation (currently between 20.9 – 19.9K) bear market lower lows are back in the conversation.

✅IMO: We have witnessed an unprecedented parabolic short squeeze off the lows which I have coined as a “Bull Swan Event”. In this move price Bull Ripped in an unsustainable fashion taking very little time to consolidate and has printed two notable lack of support zones. The first being below 22.6K and the second below 20.5K. What matters is the current 4h consolidation which is giving us the first indications of potential weekly consolidation. Everyone needs to keep in mind it is very likely BTC will print a weekly higher low around 4h oversold conditions. What is more important is what a happens next… BTC weekly higher highs or a bounce to a weekly lower high leading to weekly lower lows.

☑️ Personally: I am finding the most clarity on the 2h. In general many AltCoins are seeking potential daily higher lows between the 2h to 4h 200 EMA dynamic supports. A confluence of simultaneously being oversold at a the relevant dynamic 200 EMA support with adequate Price Discovery Pivots gives us greater confidence in this support level. We are currently seeing the first signs of Bearish Price Acceleration and potential confirmation weekly highs are set. Thus I am currently targeting lower highs for my longs. Almost all my Green List tickers remain red on the short side. Once the local low is set I will be scouting 4-12h bearishly divergent price discovery pivots on the next bounce to average up my shorts. It is possible the current pullback will be the last time I participate on the long side before flipping back the being short focused. My trade game plan has now changed. On this current oversold pullback my criteria to enter oversold longs is limited to the increasingly fewer AltCoins that have continued to break to 4h higher highs. A few examples of 4h HH AltCoins are: DOT, OP, & SHIB.

👉 It is important to note:
1. BTC .D ( Bitcoin Dominance) has had a notable pullback over the past week.
2. The DXY is finally showing some signs of life confirming a 4h uptrend and breaking to daily higher highs. We have known the most likely scenario for the DXY was to print a monthly higher low compared to 89.5. It is likely the DXY monthly higher low will coincide with BTC’s local high.
3. The NAS100 & SPX500 have both printed 4h lower highs in pre-market and are close to confirming 4h downtrends. Both indices have created a lot of space to pullback to daily higher lows.

🚨 stream Team Green List Top 5 most bullish (on the 12h) 50X AltCoins IMO: DOT, FTM, MATIC, OP, & SHIB.

*️⃣ Make your own trade decisions, I am only an educator on the Strength Trading System