USD Index Targets 104.820 After US Federal Reserve Meeting?

22 בפבר׳ 2023

We have learned that almost all US Federal Reserve officials backed a 25-basis-points rate hike at the last FOMC meeting held on January 31 to February 1.

Only a few officials favored a larger 50-basis-points hike at the meeting or said they "could have supported" it. Even so, many more dovish sentences were spoken in the latest meeting than compared to the December meeting. Although, officials did not go as far to consider a pause in rate hikes. The only time this topic was broached was in reference to foreign central banks and their potential strategies.

Of course, the meetings also showed the obligatory note that, although the rate hikes have started to ease inflationary pressure, officials agreed that there was much more work to do to get inflation under control and were definitely aware of the risk of not doing enough, so the drip of dovish language will likely continue for some time before a dovish outlook overtakes a hawkish. Especially, because the meeting took place before the release of the hotter-than-expected jobs and retail sales data from January. This might go some way in supporting the USD in the short to medium term.

Looking at the DXY after the release of the minutes, it looks to have helped the USD index push into the mid 104s, where it is encountering some resistance. The index only has to break into 104.700 to eclipse its recent one week high and return to its month high. A target above this range could include 104.820, which aligns with the 200-EMA and some peaks reached in January.