EBAY: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + NEXT PRICE TARGET

24 בספט׳ 2021

In 2021, the e-commerce and auction company, eBay, is certainly feeling great. The company attracted a record number of customers at the beginning of the pandemic as people tended to avoid shopping in stores.

eBay is using this momentum to optimize business performance. Management expects that many of the customers who signed up during the pandemic won't stick around for long, so it's focusing on retaining high-value customers. This is one of several things investors should know about eBay as the company's stock rises rapidly.

At the beginning of the pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, eBay attracted seven million active buyers, the highest in the company's history. eBay continued to attract shoppers over the next year, but that trend reversed in the last quarter. The economic recovery has forced consumers to spend more time away from home. Not surprisingly, fewer buyers turned to eBay, and as a result, the company lost seven million active buyers in the first and second quarters of 2021.

Still, the number of active shoppers is 159 million, up 3 percent from the same quarter in 2019. What's more, eBay has made some changes to its promotional activities, targeting more valuable customers, so while the overall number of shoppers is down, the quality of shoppers has improved. Here's what the company's executives had to say about that during its latest earnings call:

"In parallel, we have abandoned outdated tactics that led to low-value, infrequent or one-time buyers. Our customer base is beginning to evolve based on this strategy. Compared to last year, the number of these buyers is increasing, and their spending on eBay is increasing even faster. This higher-quality mix of buyers adds value for sellers and will lead to a better state of our ecosystem in the long run."

Indeed, while eBay lost the total number of active buyers for the quarter and for the year, it gained high-level buyers who also increased their spending over the period. These VIP shoppers make up 20% of eBay's total number of buyers, but they account for 75% of the total value of purchases. This is in stark contrast to the low-value buyers, who make up half of the total number of buyers but provide only 5% of gross merchandise volume. This new focus will be crucial for the company as it earns revenue through a percentage (take rate) of the total volume of transactions on its platform.

eBay has also moved its buyers and sellers to its own payment system. This transition helps streamline the sales process and reduce delays when buyers make a purchase and pay.

The combination of lower promotional activity and payment system migration increased eBay's transaction acceptance rate to 11.3 percent in the second quarter, up from 9.2 percent a year ago.

These latest changes may improve eBay's long-term profitability, boosting already excellent operating margins over the past decade.

The market appears to be impressed by these changes, as eBay stock is up 45% this year. Management is confident enough about its prospects to increase its stock repurchase plan for this year from $2 billion to $5 billion. Experienced investors should pay attention and put eBay on their list of stocks to watch.

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