ENPH looks Doomed if this Wyckoff Distribution Plays Out
מעודכן
Ive discussed Wyckoff Distributions before on this page. For a simple breakdown of this pattern, I've related this post to a previous post that can be found below.
Anyway, I believe we are seeing many of the same distribution cycle elements on this solar stock. I think we are currently in phase D which is usually characterized by a false bullish breakout into a downtrend. I am concerned about the lack of a clear downtrend after creating the false break. Notice the higher lows being created by the wicks in the lower portion of the channel. Long lower wicks with relatively small/avg volume suggest that selling pressure is weak. If that is the case, big money is not yet ready to take this lower.
I will be monitoring this price action closely and looking for more false breakouts and retests of the upper channel. I plan to build short positions above $200 if the opportunity presents itself. Price targets to the downside include $95, $60, and $35.
Anyway, I believe we are seeing many of the same distribution cycle elements on this solar stock. I think we are currently in phase D which is usually characterized by a false bullish breakout into a downtrend. I am concerned about the lack of a clear downtrend after creating the false break. Notice the higher lows being created by the wicks in the lower portion of the channel. Long lower wicks with relatively small/avg volume suggest that selling pressure is weak. If that is the case, big money is not yet ready to take this lower.
I will be monitoring this price action closely and looking for more false breakouts and retests of the upper channel. I plan to build short positions above $200 if the opportunity presents itself. Price targets to the downside include $95, $60, and $35.
הערה
ENPH reported earnings last night and it ripped 🚀 I am now exploring the idea that we are in the UTAD phase of the Wyckoff distr. This phase is characterized as a false breakout. Big money will allow the stock to break the upper range and trap bulls in long positions. I will be looking for signs of a reversal and consolidation up to $300. If we start to close significantly above $300, I will consider this trade a dud.הערה
Quick thought that I had... If prices for oil come down, demand for renewables like Solar are likely to fall. There is news of demand for oil dropping due to chinas economic weakness as well as some news about an Iran deal that could ramp up supply. Both events could push oil prices lower. Looking at the updated chart, there is consolidation at these highs. I speculate that big money is slowly exiting their position at these levels. I am looking to start scaling into a short.הערה
ENPH down 12% so far. Looks like this is big money is distributing. Looking for 220 first.הערה
If this pattern is to continue, we need to see a retest of structure and a reversal signal.
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