I should have seen yesterday was a creeping market and either gone long or stayed out completely. They say "never short a creeping market" - that's a lesson to remember. I would add - "long a creeping market on pullbacks and trail a stop." That would have been the profitable move yesterday.
This new main count seems the most reasonable right now. We have consumer confidence numbers at 10am, so that may push this down. However, we can never tell how that market will react to "good" or "bad " news. Keep in mind the channel may end up being support and we may rally from it - or we may bounce there and then go lower.
I don't think a lower low is on the table for the index at this point, but we'll have to see how the rest of the week develops. This correction (IF it's correct) "should" last into tomorrow at least.
Other ideas will be posted below. I'll be out till about 11am today, so I will see you after then.
Good Luck today!
This new main count seems the most reasonable right now. We have consumer confidence numbers at 10am, so that may push this down. However, we can never tell how that market will react to "good" or "bad " news. Keep in mind the channel may end up being support and we may rally from it - or we may bounce there and then go lower.
I don't think a lower low is on the table for the index at this point, but we'll have to see how the rest of the week develops. This correction (IF it's correct) "should" last into tomorrow at least.
Other ideas will be posted below. I'll be out till about 11am today, so I will see you after then.
Good Luck today!
הערה:
No sign of the index pulling back - in fact we may already have an impulse up and this may be the B of that correction - to the channel would be the target. Watching for this as of now.
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So this may be happening, not sure yet. If it comes to the channel trendline, I will probably go long with a tight stop. Good Luck all
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Larger idea so you can see the channel we are above. I do think it gets tested but there are no guarantees.
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Channel trendline probably will be tested before close. Worth watching
הערה:
Possible move on SPY
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We'll have to watch it after hours, I still think 2540 is possible on ES and then a jump up after testing the channel, but we'll see. I'll update at some point later today.
הערה:
channel being tested, waiting to see what happens -
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So far it's holding
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channel has held so ar. Any 1 hour candle below it will probably indicate more selling.
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Under the channel overnight. If we rally up to it, look for a failure. Also possible that we are in another channel (purple lines). Waiting for retest of main channel before I do anything.
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As of now, the original analysis (top of page) seems correct - I'm expecting we hit 2347 sometime today or tomorrow. Any main channel retest is a good opportunity to short - I'll wait for that.
הערה:
The only other alternative (for me) at this point is a channel/triangle. This would be more possible if we get solidly back over the main channel trendline. If today starts acting as a "creeping up" market again, that may be what's happening. I'll be watching for that as well. Something like this is possible -
הערה:
Today's idea published www.tradingview.com/...500-SPY-April-Fools/
