ES/SPY Weekend Levels (Jul 25-29)
We have a massive week ahead with earnings from the Mega Caps and the much anticipated FOMC July rate decision. The week is setting up to either establish the bottom or take the market to new lows. Anyone claiming to know what is going to happen is not a trader. The confluence of data and global events have the market poised to explode in either direction or continue to chop in a wide range. The only edge we have is to observe and act when the market shows its hand at the key levels. Below are a few points I will be considering going into the week ahead. Please note that I will be away at a cabin for the week so updates will not be as frequent as usual (bad week for a vacay I know). Good luck and happy trading.
• Last week had a 180 point range and closed up 2.89%
• Finished first full week of earnings highlighted by a TSLA beat and positive reaction followed by a SNAP miss and a drop of +35%.
• Preliminary GDP data coming out on Friday with Core PCE data.
• Massive earning week ahead with GOOG , AMZN , AAPL all reporting along with many other highly watched stocks like CVX , XOM & many consumer staple names like KO & PG .
• FOMC meeting also on tap with July’s rate decision and commentary on Wednesday.
• Oil prices pulling back, yields have dropped and commodities have weakened. All may cause the Fed to soften their hawkish tone.
• Market currently stuck between fear of inflation and fear of recession.
• With a combination of FED news, Data drops and Big Name Earnings expect large price moves in either direction and elevated volatility .
• This could be the week that lets us know if the bottom is in or send the market to new lows.
• Important week to exercise patience and discipline
Weekly Events
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday US New Home Sales, US CB Confidence
Wednesday US Durable Goods, US EIA Crude Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision and Commentary
Thursday US GDP QoQ Advance, US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday Canadian GDP, US Consumer Spending, University of Mich. Sentiment, US Core PCE
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday NEM, NXPI , CLS , UHS
Tuesday MMM , ADM , KO, GE , GM , KMB , MCD , RTX , UPS, GOOG , CMG , ENPH , JNPR , TXN , V, TER, SKX
Wednesday BA, BMY , AVY , ADP, SHOP, WM , AEM , ETSY , F, QCOM , NOW, TDOC
Thursday MO, BUD, CP, HOG, HTZ , HSY , HON, KDP , TREE, MA, PFE , RCL , TLRY , WING, AMZN , AAPL , DECK, EIX , ROKU, SGEN , X
Friday ABBV , AZN , CVX , CHD , CL , XOM , IMO, PSX , PG , WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Basing pattern forming
Max negative sentiment = potential short squeeze
At the 55 ema coming off fairly strong week
Nasdaq above 9/21 ema cloud
Potential positive earnings momentum
Potential positive guidance from AAPL , AMZN , GOOG ect.
Potential positive reaction to the FOMC
Above the 3900 level
BEARISH NOTES
Fed is tightening into a weakening economy
Max neg. sentiment may lead to self fulfilling prophecy
Possible negative earnings momentum
Earnings estimates likely to be revised lower
Potential negative guidance from AAPL , AMZN , GOOG ect.
Outlier event shock risk is still high
Potential Neg reaction to FOMC
Current rally coming into more overhead resistance.
• Last week had a 180 point range and closed up 2.89%
• Finished first full week of earnings highlighted by a TSLA beat and positive reaction followed by a SNAP miss and a drop of +35%.
• Preliminary GDP data coming out on Friday with Core PCE data.
• Massive earning week ahead with GOOG , AMZN , AAPL all reporting along with many other highly watched stocks like CVX , XOM & many consumer staple names like KO & PG .
• FOMC meeting also on tap with July’s rate decision and commentary on Wednesday.
• Oil prices pulling back, yields have dropped and commodities have weakened. All may cause the Fed to soften their hawkish tone.
• Market currently stuck between fear of inflation and fear of recession.
• With a combination of FED news, Data drops and Big Name Earnings expect large price moves in either direction and elevated volatility .
• This could be the week that lets us know if the bottom is in or send the market to new lows.
• Important week to exercise patience and discipline
Weekly Events
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday US New Home Sales, US CB Confidence
Wednesday US Durable Goods, US EIA Crude Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision and Commentary
Thursday US GDP QoQ Advance, US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday Canadian GDP, US Consumer Spending, University of Mich. Sentiment, US Core PCE
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday NEM, NXPI , CLS , UHS
Tuesday MMM , ADM , KO, GE , GM , KMB , MCD , RTX , UPS, GOOG , CMG , ENPH , JNPR , TXN , V, TER, SKX
Wednesday BA, BMY , AVY , ADP, SHOP, WM , AEM , ETSY , F, QCOM , NOW, TDOC
Thursday MO, BUD, CP, HOG, HTZ , HSY , HON, KDP , TREE, MA, PFE , RCL , TLRY , WING, AMZN , AAPL , DECK, EIX , ROKU, SGEN , X
Friday ABBV , AZN , CVX , CHD , CL , XOM , IMO, PSX , PG , WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Basing pattern forming
Max negative sentiment = potential short squeeze
At the 55 ema coming off fairly strong week
Nasdaq above 9/21 ema cloud
Potential positive earnings momentum
Potential positive guidance from AAPL , AMZN , GOOG ect.
Potential positive reaction to the FOMC
Above the 3900 level
BEARISH NOTES
Fed is tightening into a weakening economy
Max neg. sentiment may lead to self fulfilling prophecy
Possible negative earnings momentum
Earnings estimates likely to be revised lower
Potential negative guidance from AAPL , AMZN , GOOG ect.
Outlier event shock risk is still high
Potential Neg reaction to FOMC
Current rally coming into more overhead resistance.
and the May 31st pivot. Note the 200 SMA lining up close to the 618 Fib. If price can hold the 382 Fib below a move to the 200 SMA is possible.