Weekend Update: 8.27.22 Coverage List Updated
Introduction
I have been calling for OML (One More Low) since the beginning of the week on the basket of my coverage list. I was starting to run out of things to say except... ”STILL WAITING”. I even lowered my myself to referencing a Rocky III line. (The sacrifices I make to get my point across...lol) I bring this up because of the amount of DM’s I got every day asking if I was still holding out for that “elusive OML”. My answer the whole week was simple.
Patience.
I am not the best analyst in the world. I am not in possession of any non-public knowledge concern the assets I cover. I do however, follow rules in my analysis and they’re pretty simple. In the absence of invalidation or an alternate pattern taking precedent, I stick with the pattern I have. This is not about conviction; this has nothing to do with confidence....it has everything to do with RULES.
SP500
The above main chart is the SP500 Futures. My BLACK primary EWT count suggests we topped in wave B and are headed to new lows. Indulge me as I explain why that’s my primary analysis and not a guess, or anything else based on empirical data and the rules of Elliott Wave Theory. From the high in January of 4808.25 to the low on June 17 of 3639.00 MACD was printing its strongest reading during the decline. That is how I know that was our A wave down. Since corrective patterns mostly consist of an ABC pattern...I knew to expect a countertrend rally in the form of a B wave. B waves, like fourth waves, are up for anything. They can be traditionally hard to count but they are always completed in 3 waves. I have 3 waves in the form of a countertrend rally that ended on August 16 at 4327.00. Since then, we have declined. Here’s where things can become debatable. My alternative count (purple) suggest we are still in our rally mode and we should be bottoming in a minor wave 4 only to strike a new local high in wave 5....meaning above 4327 for still an A wave. The most popular questions I get as of today are:
How do you know we didn’t bottom on June 17 and now we’re in the process of completing a wave 1 higher to new all-time highs?
Why label BLACK as a primary pathway when we could in fact only be 1/3 of the way to completing wave B?
All good and reasonable questions. So, the reason why I believe we have topped in B and we’re headed to new lows are a couple of data points outside of EWT. I wrote about this before that the average Bear Market is approximately 10 months. (You can use the Google machine to find out precisely how many days an average Bear Market lasts, but suffice to say it approximately 10 months) So for this decline to be AVERAGE....we should expect a bottom in the very beginning of October. My BLACK count lines up with this data point. Now could purple turn out to be the pathway...Sure. However, that would put this Bear Market on par with some of the longest lasting historically speaking and I do not do complex, nor to I venture into the low probability. Yes, that could happen, but as of NOW, I don’t see a reason to shape a trading strategy around that. SO that’s reason #1 as to why I believe we topped in the US Markets on August 16. The final reason is I have a perfectly good B wave counter trend rally very very very close to the .618% Fibonacci Retracement level (Blue Circle Above). Why wouldn’t I call that good and go home? I have said repeatedly...I don’t do complex....when the simple will suffice. So now you have the context behind my analysis...which is...We’ve Topped and PAIN begins for stock holders.
Bitcoin (BTC)
With the OML I’ve been calling for we now you look a wave 2 retracement after completion. I obviously do not have a wave 2 in place so detailed targets below are preliminary but the next logical fib below the wave 3 bottom is $15700 (Truth be told I like the 1.618% fib way down at the $14500 area better). So many of my post regarding BTC have been for a decline to the $15,000 level. I have no reason to deviate from that analysis. BTC is a chart that is behaving well according to the Rules of EWT so we are now carving out the various machinations down to that level. As we retrace, I will advise on any trade set ups (understandably they’re going to be short trades). Should you go long? That’s up to you, but know you’re counter trend trading and I would encourage the use of a stop as a wave 2 retrace can be deep or shallow...we don’t know yet.
(Chart Below)
Ethereum (ETC)
As late ETH has gone from accommodating to being a little rebellious. Whereas SOL and BTC have struck now lows, ETH has not. I reiterate...PATIENCE. The $1524 will give way eventually. Right now ETH is playing hide and go seek but in the end, it will be for nothing. As I posted earlier this week....I like $1510 for a wave 1 bottom...but time will tell. Assuming I will get my $1510 target, then we should expect a retrace to the area of $1700-$1900 but don’t go out and buy ETH...as we have not struck a bottom yet and this area is only based on a $1510 bottom. Patience.
(Chart Below)
Solana (SOL)
SOL, Like BTC and ETH is in the bottoming process now. A retrace to the area of $38-$45 is expected in the coming weeks. I think buying SOL in the low $30-$32 area is not a bad idea but again you’re countertrend trading so to do so is to accept the risk. For me, I prefer to see the retrace unfold and short.
(Chart Below)
Best to all,
Chris
PS: I’ll be on vacation from 9/1-9/15 and will not be posting during that timeframe. I may be able to respond to DM’s.
I have been calling for OML (One More Low) since the beginning of the week on the basket of my coverage list. I was starting to run out of things to say except... ”STILL WAITING”. I even lowered my myself to referencing a Rocky III line. (The sacrifices I make to get my point across...lol) I bring this up because of the amount of DM’s I got every day asking if I was still holding out for that “elusive OML”. My answer the whole week was simple.
Patience.
I am not the best analyst in the world. I am not in possession of any non-public knowledge concern the assets I cover. I do however, follow rules in my analysis and they’re pretty simple. In the absence of invalidation or an alternate pattern taking precedent, I stick with the pattern I have. This is not about conviction; this has nothing to do with confidence....it has everything to do with RULES.
SP500
The above main chart is the SP500 Futures. My BLACK primary EWT count suggests we topped in wave B and are headed to new lows. Indulge me as I explain why that’s my primary analysis and not a guess, or anything else based on empirical data and the rules of Elliott Wave Theory. From the high in January of 4808.25 to the low on June 17 of 3639.00 MACD was printing its strongest reading during the decline. That is how I know that was our A wave down. Since corrective patterns mostly consist of an ABC pattern...I knew to expect a countertrend rally in the form of a B wave. B waves, like fourth waves, are up for anything. They can be traditionally hard to count but they are always completed in 3 waves. I have 3 waves in the form of a countertrend rally that ended on August 16 at 4327.00. Since then, we have declined. Here’s where things can become debatable. My alternative count (purple) suggest we are still in our rally mode and we should be bottoming in a minor wave 4 only to strike a new local high in wave 5....meaning above 4327 for still an A wave. The most popular questions I get as of today are:
How do you know we didn’t bottom on June 17 and now we’re in the process of completing a wave 1 higher to new all-time highs?
Why label BLACK as a primary pathway when we could in fact only be 1/3 of the way to completing wave B?
All good and reasonable questions. So, the reason why I believe we have topped in B and we’re headed to new lows are a couple of data points outside of EWT. I wrote about this before that the average Bear Market is approximately 10 months. (You can use the Google machine to find out precisely how many days an average Bear Market lasts, but suffice to say it approximately 10 months) So for this decline to be AVERAGE....we should expect a bottom in the very beginning of October. My BLACK count lines up with this data point. Now could purple turn out to be the pathway...Sure. However, that would put this Bear Market on par with some of the longest lasting historically speaking and I do not do complex, nor to I venture into the low probability. Yes, that could happen, but as of NOW, I don’t see a reason to shape a trading strategy around that. SO that’s reason #1 as to why I believe we topped in the US Markets on August 16. The final reason is I have a perfectly good B wave counter trend rally very very very close to the .618% Fibonacci Retracement level (Blue Circle Above). Why wouldn’t I call that good and go home? I have said repeatedly...I don’t do complex....when the simple will suffice. So now you have the context behind my analysis...which is...We’ve Topped and PAIN begins for stock holders.
Bitcoin (BTC)
With the OML I’ve been calling for we now you look a wave 2 retracement after completion. I obviously do not have a wave 2 in place so detailed targets below are preliminary but the next logical fib below the wave 3 bottom is $15700 (Truth be told I like the 1.618% fib way down at the $14500 area better). So many of my post regarding BTC have been for a decline to the $15,000 level. I have no reason to deviate from that analysis. BTC is a chart that is behaving well according to the Rules of EWT so we are now carving out the various machinations down to that level. As we retrace, I will advise on any trade set ups (understandably they’re going to be short trades). Should you go long? That’s up to you, but know you’re counter trend trading and I would encourage the use of a stop as a wave 2 retrace can be deep or shallow...we don’t know yet.
(Chart Below)
Ethereum (ETC)
As late ETH has gone from accommodating to being a little rebellious. Whereas SOL and BTC have struck now lows, ETH has not. I reiterate...PATIENCE. The $1524 will give way eventually. Right now ETH is playing hide and go seek but in the end, it will be for nothing. As I posted earlier this week....I like $1510 for a wave 1 bottom...but time will tell. Assuming I will get my $1510 target, then we should expect a retrace to the area of $1700-$1900 but don’t go out and buy ETH...as we have not struck a bottom yet and this area is only based on a $1510 bottom. Patience.
(Chart Below)
Solana (SOL)
SOL, Like BTC and ETH is in the bottoming process now. A retrace to the area of $38-$45 is expected in the coming weeks. I think buying SOL in the low $30-$32 area is not a bad idea but again you’re countertrend trading so to do so is to accept the risk. For me, I prefer to see the retrace unfold and short.
(Chart Below)
Best to all,
Chris
PS: I’ll be on vacation from 9/1-9/15 and will not be posting during that timeframe. I may be able to respond to DM’s.
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