ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Oct24-28)

S&P finish the week up 4.63% after trading in a range of 187 points. The move featured a Monday rally from below the Jun 17th low and the 1.272 Fib X, a pull back for the next 3 days and then another rally to close the week at the highs. Price is now back above the 9/21 emas, the June 17th low and has broken the recent downward trend line. The weekly close was bullish, but in the context of the higher time frame the S&P still sits precariously on the edge of the June 17th pivot low. Heavy week of earning ahead with reports from the key mega cap stocks. Below are a few points I am considering.

• Coming off +4.63% Weekly gain
• Above 9/21 emas & June 17th low
• Broke downward trendline
• Heavy week of earnings ahead
• Canadian & ECB rate decisions are key economic events
• Strong seasonal period for tech has begun
• Strong seasonal period for S&P begins next week
• Watch for follow through pull back in bond yield & DXY
• Market still waiting on panic market flush with VIX spike above 40
• AMZN, AAPL, META, MSFT, GOOG report this week

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US S&P PMI Flash
Tuesday US CB Consumer Confidence & Fed Waller Speaks
Wednesday BoC Rate Decision, US New Home Sales & US EIA Crude
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Initial Jobs Claims & Durable Goods
Friday Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence & University Mich. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday BOH, CLS, DFS, LOGI
Tuesday MMM, ADM, BIIB, CNC, CLF, KO, CLW, GE, GM, HAL, JBLU, KMB, RTX, UPS, GOOG, ENPH, MAT, MSFT, SPOT, TXN, UHS, V
Wednesday AVY, BA, BSX, BMY, HOG, HLT, KHC, OTIS, STX, WM, CP, CLR, F, LC, META, NOW, SAVE, TDOC, URI, WFC
Thursday MO< BUD, AN, CCJ, CAT, CMCSA, HTZ, HON, KDP, MA, MCD, MRK, NOC, BTU, RCL, SHOP, LUV, SWK, TWTR, WDC, XEL, AMZN, AAPL, FSLR, PINS, SGEN, TMUS, X
Friday ABBV, CVX, CL, XOM, FTS, GWW,

BULLISH NOTES

Above 9/21 emas
Above June 17th low
Broke downward trendline
Potential for more short covering
Potential positive reactions to heavy earnings week
Potential pull back in bond yields and USD
Light week for economic data and Fed head talks

BEARISH NOTES
SPX still sitting on the edge of key Jun 17th pivot
Below 55 ema
Potential negative reaction to heavy earnings week
Potential continued move higher in bond yields & USD
Escalation of Ukraine war
Potential hawkish commentary by fed

הערה:

The ES rallied 200+ pts off the June 17th low in 3 days to start the week. Price broke the Oct 5th pivot and cleared the 55 ema briefly. Following mega cap earnings price pull back sharply an now sits at the Oct 5th pivot high. Going forward price must hold the 21 ema to continue the move higher. Above the recent high a move into the 618 fib at 4000 is possible. If the 21 ema is lost expect a move back to the June 17th low.

הערה:

The ES pushed higher again today but was rejected at the 50 Fib. The S&P remains stronger than the NQ and has not been as volatile. Support remains at the Oct 5th pivot high and the 21 ema below that. A break of the recent high could take it to 4000.

הערה:

Pulled back into the Oct 5th high and the 55 ema overnight. Got a bounce after the GDP data was released. The 55 ema will be by bull/bear line today. Above = bullish.
A break below means a trip back to the 21 ema is likely. S&P is currently showing relative strength.

הערה:

Broke down through the 55 yesterday and pulled back to the 21 ema perfectly. So far very bullish price action given the current recovery back above the 55. Above the 50% Fib a trip to 4000 this probable.