Your Weekend Read: Analysis on SPX, BTC, SOL, ETH
Introduction
I’m back from a nice vacation in the mountains. If you’ve never been in a position to NOT have a cell signal for several days you should be so lucky to experience it. One word describes it best, Liberating. I appreciated the time away but it’s time to jump back into the real world, away from magical sunsets, the solitude of a lonely trail, and the sounds of nature.
SP500
The above chart shows where we are within the super cycle top about to be struck in the SPX in the 2024 time-frame. Please don’t ask what event will cause such a rally to the area of 5200-6000 or the ensuing decline to the 2000-3000 level. I do not know. Feel free to speculate. Be that as it may, the above chart is a highly probable roadmap for the next decade or so in the US Markets. However, I will state that after the next ATH is struck in the 2024-25 timeframe, I would highly recommend raising cash in the most aggressive terms. That larger wave 4 could take as much as 10 years to complete. This will be an unprecedented era of BAD returns in the US Stock Markets. Sure, one could ponder what social, financial or geopolitical event could be the excuse for a 50% to 60% loss of wealth out of sheer curiosity. Suffice to say that the event, whatever it is, will be an excuse for what we can forecast years in advance.
Currently, I will point out that this decline from 4808.25 in January 2022 is approaching maturity and with any trade below 3639.00 we need to be on alert and consider the seriousness of these final machinations as they will usher in generous LONG SIDE trading opportunities. Looking at the chart below, it appears we have concluded our wave 1 down in the black PRIMARY count, or our “b” wave in the purple SECONDARY count which is an alternative count and price is now in the target box for our wave 2 retrace. The Orange TERTIARY Count which is a second alternative count, supposes we topped today. Orange becomes my primary pathway if price begins to drop towards new lows rather aggressively starting next week. Black supposes we will not top in wave 2 for another week or so. Above 4240 and purple begins to become my primary count. Purple wave c of B reconciles in the area of 4550. I will entertain opening a short SPX position as BLACK plays out.... right now, I’m watching a bunch of charts and unpacking from my vacation.
(See Smaller Time-Frame SPX chart below)
(Click on Chart for a detailed view)
Bitcoin (BTC)
The below chart is a 30-minute chart. I don’t normally use this time increment chart but I wanted all of the decline to be visible in its smallest timeframe so hence we have a 30-minute chart below. We have a five-wave pattern down as you can see from all the sub waves it perfectly fits within the rules of Elliott Wave. My concern with this count is the shear extension of this wave 1 down is massive (4.50%). It far exceeds the 2.618 -3.00% Fibonacci extension level seem with most normal impulse waves. According to rules of Elliott Wave this pattern is 100% valid as an impulse wave down. If this count is correct and a standard wave 2 retracement is underway ($21,800), this points to an ultimate bottom in the area of $9,000 to $11,000. I do not want to get ahead of myself so let’s see what clues the BTC price pattern affords us in the coming days and weeks before we draw too drastic a bottoming conclusion. Suffice to say, the timeframe between now and end of October should clear things up considerably.
IS BITCOIN A SHORT?
We’re so close to breaching the June lows that shorting Bitcoin here is entirely up the trader’s risk profile. For this trader, it’s neither a short nor a long. It’s a watch and see what happens for me. I know that may not be the type of directional advice longs or shorts want to hear but in my opinion is way too risky to expose oneself to Bitcoin here. I stand by my original bottoming price forecast of BTC to $15,000-$16,000 area. I prefer to see what shape the pattern is taking once at those levels before discussing any trade set-ups. Nonetheless, if price can get up to the $21,800 area and the manner in which it does that, I reserve the right to change my mind on shorting. The worst-case scenario of a $9,000 Bitcoin while at $21,800 maybe be a compelling scenario. Let’s first see if price can prove itself that it can at least rally to $21,800.
(Click on Chart for a detailed view)
Solana (SOL)
Solana is clearly in its wave 2 retrace (in Black) right now. The question is, has SOL topped in wave 2 or will this drag out for a little while longer? My primary count black supposes that SOL has or is going to top with OMH (One More High). From here, we should expect Solana to slowly reveal is headed to new lows. My Black primary count has EVERYTHING (ALL RISK ASSETS) bottoming in October 2022. My minimum target for Solana is the $19-$20 area, with a potential extension to sub $14. However, the alternative purple Elliott Wave count on the chart supposes this counter trend rally is only the “a” wave and it will be a week or two (very similar to the SPX) before we top in wave 2. I have encouraged against going long to my followers because we’re in a wave 2 and this counter trend retrace could be over now. Nonetheless, even if Purple plays out and after a decline and we head even higher than now.... (as a Trader) I am more inclined to short the next purple retrace higher if that happens, rather than go long.
Between now and Mid-Next Week, I expect indecision to play a large role in SOL price movements. However, I believe this indecision is a distraction and new lows are sooner than later for holders of Solana. I say this directly to my followers...If you feel Solana is going higher in a stubborn fashion over the weekend and early next week...REFRAIN FROM BUYING.
This is going to get much uglier before this Crypto Currency is a BUY. I apologize in advance, as I do not bring good news in the short term. In the long term, Solana will be the BUY of the next 2 years. A must own asset.
PATIENCE.
(Click on Chart for a detailed view)
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH is in the target box for a wave 2 retracement.... but I feel she may have a little more to run up. Ideally, I’d like to see ETH tag $1800 minimum for a wave 2 top...but rather than get ourselves, the weekend should provide some sense of the intentions.
I have been on vacation as many of my followers know...but that didn’t stop the DM’s about the ETH conversion from POW to POS. Arguably those DM’s come from new followers as my old timers know I DO NOT CARE ABOUT EXTERNAL EVENTS, NEWS, ETC. It would not matter if Winston Churchill himself came back from the grave to steward ETH through it’s conversion to POS. ETH has a magnet attached to it, and the magnet points to sub $700. Be on the lookout for a short...(NOT A LONG).
Guys/Gals,
It’s great to be back from vacation. Back in the thick of it...I love it. Let’s make some money folks.
Best to all,
Chris
I’m back from a nice vacation in the mountains. If you’ve never been in a position to NOT have a cell signal for several days you should be so lucky to experience it. One word describes it best, Liberating. I appreciated the time away but it’s time to jump back into the real world, away from magical sunsets, the solitude of a lonely trail, and the sounds of nature.
SP500
The above chart shows where we are within the super cycle top about to be struck in the SPX in the 2024 time-frame. Please don’t ask what event will cause such a rally to the area of 5200-6000 or the ensuing decline to the 2000-3000 level. I do not know. Feel free to speculate. Be that as it may, the above chart is a highly probable roadmap for the next decade or so in the US Markets. However, I will state that after the next ATH is struck in the 2024-25 timeframe, I would highly recommend raising cash in the most aggressive terms. That larger wave 4 could take as much as 10 years to complete. This will be an unprecedented era of BAD returns in the US Stock Markets. Sure, one could ponder what social, financial or geopolitical event could be the excuse for a 50% to 60% loss of wealth out of sheer curiosity. Suffice to say that the event, whatever it is, will be an excuse for what we can forecast years in advance.
Currently, I will point out that this decline from 4808.25 in January 2022 is approaching maturity and with any trade below 3639.00 we need to be on alert and consider the seriousness of these final machinations as they will usher in generous LONG SIDE trading opportunities. Looking at the chart below, it appears we have concluded our wave 1 down in the black PRIMARY count, or our “b” wave in the purple SECONDARY count which is an alternative count and price is now in the target box for our wave 2 retrace. The Orange TERTIARY Count which is a second alternative count, supposes we topped today. Orange becomes my primary pathway if price begins to drop towards new lows rather aggressively starting next week. Black supposes we will not top in wave 2 for another week or so. Above 4240 and purple begins to become my primary count. Purple wave c of B reconciles in the area of 4550. I will entertain opening a short SPX position as BLACK plays out.... right now, I’m watching a bunch of charts and unpacking from my vacation.
(See Smaller Time-Frame SPX chart below)
(Click on Chart for a detailed view)
Bitcoin (BTC)
The below chart is a 30-minute chart. I don’t normally use this time increment chart but I wanted all of the decline to be visible in its smallest timeframe so hence we have a 30-minute chart below. We have a five-wave pattern down as you can see from all the sub waves it perfectly fits within the rules of Elliott Wave. My concern with this count is the shear extension of this wave 1 down is massive (4.50%). It far exceeds the 2.618 -3.00% Fibonacci extension level seem with most normal impulse waves. According to rules of Elliott Wave this pattern is 100% valid as an impulse wave down. If this count is correct and a standard wave 2 retracement is underway ($21,800), this points to an ultimate bottom in the area of $9,000 to $11,000. I do not want to get ahead of myself so let’s see what clues the BTC price pattern affords us in the coming days and weeks before we draw too drastic a bottoming conclusion. Suffice to say, the timeframe between now and end of October should clear things up considerably.
IS BITCOIN A SHORT?
We’re so close to breaching the June lows that shorting Bitcoin here is entirely up the trader’s risk profile. For this trader, it’s neither a short nor a long. It’s a watch and see what happens for me. I know that may not be the type of directional advice longs or shorts want to hear but in my opinion is way too risky to expose oneself to Bitcoin here. I stand by my original bottoming price forecast of BTC to $15,000-$16,000 area. I prefer to see what shape the pattern is taking once at those levels before discussing any trade set-ups. Nonetheless, if price can get up to the $21,800 area and the manner in which it does that, I reserve the right to change my mind on shorting. The worst-case scenario of a $9,000 Bitcoin while at $21,800 maybe be a compelling scenario. Let’s first see if price can prove itself that it can at least rally to $21,800.
(Click on Chart for a detailed view)
Solana (SOL)
Solana is clearly in its wave 2 retrace (in Black) right now. The question is, has SOL topped in wave 2 or will this drag out for a little while longer? My primary count black supposes that SOL has or is going to top with OMH (One More High). From here, we should expect Solana to slowly reveal is headed to new lows. My Black primary count has EVERYTHING (ALL RISK ASSETS) bottoming in October 2022. My minimum target for Solana is the $19-$20 area, with a potential extension to sub $14. However, the alternative purple Elliott Wave count on the chart supposes this counter trend rally is only the “a” wave and it will be a week or two (very similar to the SPX) before we top in wave 2. I have encouraged against going long to my followers because we’re in a wave 2 and this counter trend retrace could be over now. Nonetheless, even if Purple plays out and after a decline and we head even higher than now.... (as a Trader) I am more inclined to short the next purple retrace higher if that happens, rather than go long.
Between now and Mid-Next Week, I expect indecision to play a large role in SOL price movements. However, I believe this indecision is a distraction and new lows are sooner than later for holders of Solana. I say this directly to my followers...If you feel Solana is going higher in a stubborn fashion over the weekend and early next week...REFRAIN FROM BUYING.
This is going to get much uglier before this Crypto Currency is a BUY. I apologize in advance, as I do not bring good news in the short term. In the long term, Solana will be the BUY of the next 2 years. A must own asset.
PATIENCE.
(Click on Chart for a detailed view)
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH is in the target box for a wave 2 retracement.... but I feel she may have a little more to run up. Ideally, I’d like to see ETH tag $1800 minimum for a wave 2 top...but rather than get ourselves, the weekend should provide some sense of the intentions.
I have been on vacation as many of my followers know...but that didn’t stop the DM’s about the ETH conversion from POW to POS. Arguably those DM’s come from new followers as my old timers know I DO NOT CARE ABOUT EXTERNAL EVENTS, NEWS, ETC. It would not matter if Winston Churchill himself came back from the grave to steward ETH through it’s conversion to POS. ETH has a magnet attached to it, and the magnet points to sub $700. Be on the lookout for a short...(NOT A LONG).
Guys/Gals,
It’s great to be back from vacation. Back in the thick of it...I love it. Let’s make some money folks.
Best to all,
Chris
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