Market Crash - ES 1D Red Flags & Blow Off Top Rally

8 ביוני

If you don't know already, my entire trading strategy is essentially based around dow theory. I am going against my own strategy a bit by attempting to pick a top, which according to dow theory, is a losing strategy. The trend is your friend, etc. However, dow theory also states that a trend has to be confirmed by volume, otherwise it is invalid. SPY had several days where it was the lowest volume in years.

There were also a couple of two day periods that set a record for the lowest volume in consecutive days in years. This happened twice, first it had two days in a row of extremely low and abnormal volume, then later in the rally, it had another consecutive two days that were even lower than the previous two. Highly unusual.

On top of this, I believe we are experiencing a blow off top rally that will ultimately end in an extended bear market. One of the confirmations for this is the recent greed and meme stock mania we've seen in the market along with the adoption of crypto and the ensuing rally. Everyone expect BTC to hit 100k, and I did too. But now, I expect it to take a lot longer than I first thought. Meme stock rallies have marked major market tops every single time.