ES breach resistances, are we at (C) already? CPI be the key
ES movement today is definitely more bullish than what I had expected, and it passed all the resistance zone of 4510~4520, 4532.5, and 4550~4555, closed at high again, and there was not even 20 pts pullback throughout the day. Hourly 10MA was holding all the time, telling the extreme bullish microtrend is ongoing.
Since the low of 4438.5 made last Friday is already within the ideal zone of (B) wave bottom (4390~4445), it can arguably be reviewed as all of (B). If this is the case, we are in (C) wave already, and probably already finished majority of it. Under this scenario, we should hold 4550 and in the worst case 4532.5~4545 zone tomorrow and continue higher, targeting 4640~4680 and even potentially 4700 by Friday or Monday morning.
However, if tomorrow's CPI somehow tanks market (maybe a huge beat?), then we should see quick pullback toward 4390~4445 zone again in 1~3 days, and ideally it should start tomorrow morning after CPI if this is the case. Right now, I would give both scenario decent chance, with slight bias toward the more bullish one. I think market structure would be more clear by tomorrow noon.
Since the low of 4438.5 made last Friday is already within the ideal zone of (B) wave bottom (4390~4445), it can arguably be reviewed as all of (B). If this is the case, we are in (C) wave already, and probably already finished majority of it. Under this scenario, we should hold 4550 and in the worst case 4532.5~4545 zone tomorrow and continue higher, targeting 4640~4680 and even potentially 4700 by Friday or Monday morning.
However, if tomorrow's CPI somehow tanks market (maybe a huge beat?), then we should see quick pullback toward 4390~4445 zone again in 1~3 days, and ideally it should start tomorrow morning after CPI if this is the case. Right now, I would give both scenario decent chance, with slight bias toward the more bullish one. I think market structure would be more clear by tomorrow noon.
הערה
there will be some whipsaw for the next 2~3 hours, be prepared for that...הערה
CPI beats the expectation, but not by a lot, and market retreat 70 pts, market is weak, I still want to see 4550~4570 revisited, but odds shift toward bearish resolution now...הערה
78.6% retracement hit, /RTY even eliminated all the loss made since CPI report. I expect us to see at least decent pullback if not total reversal of all this gain. Don't say I did not warn you about the whipsaw....
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כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.