So what happened today?

3 במאי 2022

Today price action did a common theme... the price of the S&P 500 broke the critical low of February 24th, 2022 which was the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The 2/24 low was important because it represented a maximum of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) around a world event that by itself poses no risk to equity prices but creates a psychological sell off. Breaking this key low I have said for many weeks would represent "something real" in this recent stock market correction in that it could continue. Now, by the close of May 2, 2022 the new low shows signs of once again being a false low as it closed back inside the supports created during March of 2022. To get out confirmation we need to look at today's VIX action (continued in comments)...

3 במאי 2022

הערה

With today's VIX price action it made a new high but NOT a higher high. Despite the new low in SPY Implied volatility is not pricing in a continued correction. This VIX divergence continues to play an interesting role in forecasting 2022's stock market.

I will continue to watch the VIX for a HIGHER high to confirm any stock market crash.