Channel Hold or Channel Fold? Emini SPX
מעודכן
Tested channel after 8:30 numbers. A hold today and rally would be very bullish a fail underneath and a retest of the channel from underneath would likely be bearish. No decision until after cash opens and even then expect a lot of trickery. PUT/CALL is bearish so another swing up would not surprise me but I'm going to let price action decide.
הערה
Starting to lose the channel, cash session may come up to test it if it's much lower. הערה
Sort of a picasso like head and shoulders, if it plays out (BIG IF) then the target is around 3650 - also a support level הערה
at open, I expect another test of the neckline. Above 3750 again and it will start to look like a bullish reversal. הערה
shouldn't have said "expect" in the last chart - but rather "watching out for"הערה
Trying to hold onto the channel, I still think they will move up to surprise shorts before a larger move down, but that can be wrong. Just waiting here, still short aapl and spy but not heavy. הערה
Channel lost, they couldn't hold it and make a rally first. Technical traders will see this as very bearish. הערה
On SPX cash we really haven't broken the channel trendline and it bothers me that this is the case. It is very possible this is just a B of an ABC and so I want to urge caution. It looks more bearish on futures, but when I see discrepancies like this I get cautious. הערה
SPY looking similar - a close today above 368 on spy and I would urge caution for shorts into next week. הערה
IF they recapture 3730 today on futures the daily candle will look like a false breakdown and we go higher likely next week. I will update if that happens. הערה
SPY looks like it lost trend. lower into EOD would be good for bears. A recapture by EOD would be good for bulls.הערה
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SPY at a support level and the .618 fib - typical buy zone for many. I'm taking some profit here in case something weird happens and they reverse it. הערה
bear flag continuation to 3580 likely. Will reevaluate once that level is reached. Going out for the day - good luck! הערה
head and shoulders target reached 
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