ES is at an inflection point, whipsaw is likely to continue

5 בפבר׳ 2022

Overnight, ES completely reversed the gain after AMZN beat and made lower low premarket, it spent another 2 hours to form a better bottoming structure and then rallied almost all day, except the last 20 minutes before close, where it gave back almost 50 pts. This is typical behavior when ES is at some sort of B wave, 3 waves everywhere, and can reverse at anytime at key resistance/support level. Noted today's high at 4532.5 is extremely close to yesterday RTH high of 4534.5 and Wed RTH low of 4535.25, it is also close to 61.8% retracement (4529.75) of the drop since Wed high till today's premarket low. Given the tendency of B wave, and previous fractals, I am of the opinion that we will go higher to at least 4550 range (76.4% retracement) Sunday night/Monday morning to complete a Gartley pattern and also complete (b) of (B), noted some fractals argue that this could go even further up to make a higher high than Wed 4586, but this should not pass 4620. We will then go back down again to revisit today's range and potentially make lower low into 4350~4400 range, before we move higher into 4680 range before Feb 16th (when Fed minutes is released).

There are lots of alternative counts since it's a B wave:
1. If we don't go up (defined by today's high holds as resistance), but instead go directly lower from today's close Sunday night/Monday morning, it will open a can of worms, and targeting at least 4350 range and potentially go directly lower than Jan low of 4212.
2. If we somehow go directly higher than 4620, I think we are completing (C) wave of this B wave and we will have at least major pullback if not revisiting Jan low from there.

This is when market direction is most difficult to guess, and trend is subject to immediate reversal anytime, so it's wise to always keep some hedging or lower the size of trading, or even stay away from trading for a few days until the structure is more clear.

8 בפבר׳ 2022

הערה

ES made lower low 30 minutes after market open and potentially find a local bottom. This is probably the last chance that bull find a support and going for 4550 today, or into tomorrow. Otherwise, it has to wait for CPI report. Again any sustained break of 4438.5 is giving the hints that bears are taking back control and a full can of worms would be open with that. I got some short term calls trying to capture this move just now.

8 בפבר׳ 2022

הערה

ES is at the resistance area and needs a sustained break above overnight high of 4396.5 in one hour or two to clear the way to 4550.

8 בפבר׳ 2022

הערה

Too many resistance area ahead, but I still give bulls my benefit of doubt as long as RTY still showing relative strength over ES, maybe totally different day tomorrow, which is normal in B wave.

8 בפבר׳ 2022

הערה

market unable to breach 4520 and starting to reverse to the downside, still can hold 4495~4500 and go back higher in the next hour, if not, then it's another failed breakout, and the tight whipsaw continues

8 בפבר׳ 2022

הערה

pullback more than I thought, but it did reverse to the upside in my time range, and if we can take today's high before close, this pullback in the last hour can be reviewed as sort of wave 2 of wave c of (b) of (B), and targeting 4550 minimum, could be even higher into 4600 range.