Market Crash - FOMC Analysis and Rate Cut Expectations

12 ביוני

I give my thoughts on CPI and FOMC. Some of the things I'm looking for and my opinion on rate cut expectations.

12 ביוני

הערה

reddit.com/r/options/comments/1aidvvu/fomc_analysis_trade_plan_2k_to_50k_in_90_days/

12 ביוני

הערה

CPI came in 0.01% cooler than expected and sparked pretty big rally. AAPL is still unstoppable, insane gain from just 2 days. NVDA strong as well, but there are some more bearish tickers too. Overall, I don't see many bearish divergences or signals at the moment. GME is strong, so that could weigh on the market, but so far it's being kept at bay. VX is continuing to fall off a cliff, but appears to have found a bottom at least temporarily and we are seeing some red candles finally.

I think it's all a question of what the fed minutes show for September. If the market decides September cuts aren't happening, this whole rally will be erased in short order. However, if the September cut is confirmed by Powell or he is overly dovish, VX is dead and bears are toast once again. I think it is irresponsible for the fed to cut in September and think the market is wrong to jump up fed fund futures expectations like that. We'll see later today. Crash may be postponed, who knows.

12 ביוני

הערה

What do you know, no September cut. There was really little to no chance of one. Now we're pricing in only one cut for the year. I would've expected a pretty bearish reaction to this and some of the things Powell has said. It's holding up for now and VX is dead again.

Maybe something will change before close, but I see this as a bearish development, but VX is the missing piece. It just won't rally, for now.