Stimulus rally hits $2,490 target, more downside coming?
מעודכן
Last night ~1 am the Senate passed the [url=]Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act or the CARES Act and this boosed overnight tading to my $2,490 retrace target. Since then it is down ~1.1% and with as swath of bad news coming (US unemployment claims data, consumer confidence, and ISM PMI's) and increased lockdowns across the nation I beleive that 
S&P will continue on its trajectory down.
See the note from Richard Curtin the director of the survey of consumers at the University of Michigan where he states "The first step is to recognize the immense threat that the coronavirus has for the welfare of the nation. Comparison to prior recessions, even the Great Recession, fail to correctly account for the loss of life let alone the very high eventual economic costs."
I continue to stand by my privous note that 2T won't be enough. It will most likely cost more than WWII, the most expensive war in history, at
4T (today's dollars).
Price target is $2,175 (-9.9%) to get back to recent lows.... This will be updated as more information is available.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
From linked post published yesterday
The SPX was up 9.38% on 3/24 on the expectation that Senate will pass ~2T stimulus bill soon. Any market should rise when approximalty 10% of the countries GDP will be infused into the economy. Unfortunately, my current thesis suggests that ~2T won't be enough, and it may take multiples of this to slow the economic collapse.
Technically, there are two retracement points that look good for an entry to the next leg down. The first at $2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565 (+4.8%). I believe this techical set up with the upcoming fundamentals will play out very well to the downside. Caution: if SPX rises above $2,616 then I would call this opportunity invalid.
My expectation is that one or both of the technical points will be completed before April 3rd. To be very specific I am currnetly thinking they will reach one or both of the targets before the market opens on the 26th of March which is when the US unemployment claims data comes out, which I believe will be a startling number, one for the ages (or the following week). On April 1st we will see the ISM manufacutring index which should print one of the lowest of all time, maybe ever... until April reports. This will present a stark relization to the market and the country that COVID-19 is much more of a problem then the Gov't is currently stating.
I don't believe Trump's quote from today's Fox interview where he stated "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,". I believe it will be quite the opposite. If I am wrong and the US isn't shut down like China or Italy by April 12th then GOD help us as it will only get worse.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
S&P will continue on its trajectory down. See the note from Richard Curtin the director of the survey of consumers at the University of Michigan where he states "The first step is to recognize the immense threat that the coronavirus has for the welfare of the nation. Comparison to prior recessions, even the Great Recession, fail to correctly account for the loss of life let alone the very high eventual economic costs."
I continue to stand by my privous note that 2T won't be enough. It will most likely cost more than WWII, the most expensive war in history, at
4T (today's dollars). Price target is $2,175 (-9.9%) to get back to recent lows.... This will be updated as more information is available.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
From linked post published yesterday
The SPX was up 9.38% on 3/24 on the expectation that Senate will pass ~2T stimulus bill soon. Any market should rise when approximalty 10% of the countries GDP will be infused into the economy. Unfortunately, my current thesis suggests that ~2T won't be enough, and it may take multiples of this to slow the economic collapse.
Technically, there are two retracement points that look good for an entry to the next leg down. The first at $2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565 (+4.8%). I believe this techical set up with the upcoming fundamentals will play out very well to the downside. Caution: if SPX rises above $2,616 then I would call this opportunity invalid.
My expectation is that one or both of the technical points will be completed before April 3rd. To be very specific I am currnetly thinking they will reach one or both of the targets before the market opens on the 26th of March which is when the US unemployment claims data comes out, which I believe will be a startling number, one for the ages (or the following week). On April 1st we will see the ISM manufacutring index which should print one of the lowest of all time, maybe ever... until April reports. This will present a stark relization to the market and the country that COVID-19 is much more of a problem then the Gov't is currently stating.
I don't believe Trump's quote from today's Fox interview where he stated "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,". I believe it will be quite the opposite. If I am wrong and the US isn't shut down like China or Italy by April 12th then GOD help us as it will only get worse.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
הערה
SPX his the first target and was $5 away from the second. With a large amount of negative data over the next 3 days the current target is still ~$2,175 to retrace back to recent lows.... This will be updated as more information is available.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
הערה
In the last 15 minutes of normal trading hours ES1! rose above $2,616 therefore I would call this opportunity invalid.
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