ETH - Watch a fall from the channel
מעודכן
This is a different type of analysis than what I usually do. But as mentioned before, I did recommend considering taking profit in the market if you are a swing trader. The related article is more information backing as to why I think that should be considered. But now I'm gaining confidence that we are going to fall.
CHANNEL:
Here I show the channel trend. What is most important in this setup are the parallel extremities, or throw-overs from the main channel. We established the main channel with the yellow arrows, and then get a throw-over at the end of the run before the last drop on April 24th. But it comes back to the lower channel support and bounces off. It then breaches that channel support and we find parallel support at the lower extremity on April 30th. THAT is the important detail right there. We went from one extremity to another AND re-entered the channel. Because we re-entered the channel after we broke each side of it (upper resistance and lower support), we can assume that the original (yellow resistance) will now take on its role as the resistance.
EMAs:
There are similar setups in the distance between parallel supports and price action of the 3 hour 55 EMA . The EMA serves as its own elastic band, where the price will eventually snap back to it. The farther away it goes, the harder it snaps, and we saw that on the 24th. I literally just copied and pasted the 2 blue arches from the first drop and pasted them to where we are right now.
Candles:
Another update is coming on this. The 3 hour candle pattern is pretty similar between these next setups. If this plays out. Then we have 3-6 before the next drop.
We still haven't officially reached the top resistance, if we do, then it'll probably be right around $838.
CHANNEL:
Here I show the channel trend. What is most important in this setup are the parallel extremities, or throw-overs from the main channel. We established the main channel with the yellow arrows, and then get a throw-over at the end of the run before the last drop on April 24th. But it comes back to the lower channel support and bounces off. It then breaches that channel support and we find parallel support at the lower extremity on April 30th. THAT is the important detail right there. We went from one extremity to another AND re-entered the channel. Because we re-entered the channel after we broke each side of it (upper resistance and lower support), we can assume that the original (yellow resistance) will now take on its role as the resistance.
EMAs:
There are similar setups in the distance between parallel supports and price action of the 3 hour 55 EMA . The EMA serves as its own elastic band, where the price will eventually snap back to it. The farther away it goes, the harder it snaps, and we saw that on the 24th. I literally just copied and pasted the 2 blue arches from the first drop and pasted them to where we are right now.
Candles:
Another update is coming on this. The 3 hour candle pattern is pretty similar between these next setups. If this plays out. Then we have 3-6 before the next drop.
We still haven't officially reached the top resistance, if we do, then it'll probably be right around $838.
הערה
I really didn't feel like trying to squeeze in a description under each candle. But you guys get the point. The setups are similar. And this 3 hour candle should finish green in the 830s.
הערה
We bounced from this channel support. What happens in the next day or two is going to be interesting, We still haven't tested the yellow channel resistance, and I'm not currently in a position. The yellow drawing is a bullish scenario, with the blue being more bearish, saying that we stay within this smaller channel. But to be honest, I don't know.
I have a feeling this thing is going to just keep going up, but that's only if Bitcoin can break all the way through 10k with strength. Right now it would look like we're getting an extended 5th wave, but I'm not entirely sure.
הערה
8 hour is bearish and overbought. BUT... wait. There's more.
הערה
Mixed signals on the 3 hour, with this possible (but maybe not correct) wave count. Seriously, its acting so stupid right now. I still expect a pullback, but if RSI keeps knocking up, maybe this is just wave 3? This is an area that I've definitely been anticipating a pull back in based on historic price action.
הערה
Forgot to mention the hidden bullish divergence on the 3 hour RSI.הערה
We've stopped at our first RSI support level. If we hit the second yellow line, we'll probably eventually break through it. It will be hard for the bulls. But they need to push through this crap before things start to fall apart.
הערה
Testing lower channel support. Likely to break into the lower extremity. If lower extremity breaks, then we'll shuffle between $640-$680 for a while.הערה
Fighting to stay above channel and RSI support right now
הערה
New Channel.
הערה
Still working on the right shoulder. Should test yellow medial line again. $790 target.
הערה
Ethereum losing steam. Maybe a small correction?
הערה
If you look at the original chart and press play, you notice that ETH is finding the original lower extremity support line (white line) as a resistance. Keep in mind that we may not enter back into that channel.
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