Ether Trend Change Part II - Bear: Short Opportunity
מעודכן
Hello Traders, here is the next iteration in the Ethereum chart, there are some updates to the Monthly assessment, so be sure to read below! Good luck.
Trading is similar to a mental martial art. So in order to be the best trader and TA I can be, I employ a system that uses multiple disciplines to pinpoint wave count/location, trend, and price action. Just a quick rundown on what to expect:
I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations.
I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
LWC: Location GSC2B: Diagonal Triangle E (D top = G)
Trend: Down Recent Pivot G: $489.57
Candlestick pattern - Red Engulfing:
• G may be top and is a large red engulfing candle, which is a reversal pattern
• The formation is one candle that may represent the initial impulse or wave 1 in a new trend downwards
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time pivots on G
- Failed at .236 major retracement resistance
- Notice the white Fib ext.: this shows that the top of G failed at 2x extension of the LAST LEG DOWN on the previous move. This is the price action driving gains; the price hit a time and price resistance at G
- GSC2B_SCc fourth wave violations
- Three, three, three, three, three pattern
- Declining vol. & slight bearish divergence
- G strong Gann relationship with C, D, E, and F (see table below to verify)
- Polarity line at $362.50, this means that if the price fails to hold above this line, more price action downwards is likely for some time; G candle is not a good indicator for strength to hold above $362.50
- D and F first two rising bottoms
- Short the pivot point G after smaller time frame candle confirmation or after dropping below the low of $311
- Notice the pitchfork, it is supporting this weeks candle with low buying volume, most likely the price will continue to decline along this 75% pitchfork line, going down to the 50% based on selling pressure
- G has good time relationships with D, E, and F further suggesting trend change
- Lastly, it appears that a small evening star is emerging as this weeks candle. This may be our entry point to short sell
Projection/Trade Tactic
- GSC2 bottom: $135 (Projected H)
- Short the pivot point G after smaller time frame candle confirmation or after dropping below the low of $311
- Will confirm the drop and trend change on the Daily chart in part III for ETH. The plan for now is to monitor this retracement off G and wait for the low to cross below $311 as the upward impulses are small right now
- High risk Stop loss: $315 (1% above $311)
- Low risk Stop loss: $494 (1% above G)
- Pick your profit level based on supports below or a MA bounce
• $285
• $205
• $165
• $120
• GSC2 projected bottom: $135
- Projected H may be 3rd bottom for buying
LWC: Trends
- GSC2A: C_D
- GSC2B_SCa: D_E
- GSC2B_SCb: E_F
- GSC2B_SCc: F_G
- GSC2B: D_G
TREND RANGE GFactor GDegree TIME
A_B $ 5.77 2.4021 432.37 16
A_C $ 1,594.74 39.9342 7,188.16 29
B_C $ 1,588.97 39.8619 7,175.14 13
B_D $ 74.64 8.6394 1,555.10 24
B_F $ 83.88 9.1586 1,648.55 39
C_D $ 1,514.33 38.9144 7,004.59 11
C_E $ 1,456.29 38.1614 6,869.05 17
C_F $ 1,505.09 38.7955 6,983.19 26
C_G $ 1,105.32 33.2464 5,984.34 32
D_E $ 58.04 7.6184 1,371.31 6
D_F $ 9.24 3.0397 547.15 15
D_G $ 409.01 20.2240 3,640.32 21
E_F $ 48.80 6.9857 1,257.43 9
E_G $ 350.97 18.7342 3,372.15 15
F_G $ 399.77 19.9942 3,598.96 6
A_F $ 89.65 9.4684 1,704.31 55
A_D $ 80.41 8.9672 1,614.09 40
Trading is similar to a mental martial art. So in order to be the best trader and TA I can be, I employ a system that uses multiple disciplines to pinpoint wave count/location, trend, and price action. Just a quick rundown on what to expect:
I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations.
I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
LWC: Location GSC2B: Diagonal Triangle E (D top = G)
Trend: Down Recent Pivot G: $489.57
Candlestick pattern - Red Engulfing:
• G may be top and is a large red engulfing candle, which is a reversal pattern
• The formation is one candle that may represent the initial impulse or wave 1 in a new trend downwards
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time pivots on G
- Failed at .236 major retracement resistance
- Notice the white Fib ext.: this shows that the top of G failed at 2x extension of the LAST LEG DOWN on the previous move. This is the price action driving gains; the price hit a time and price resistance at G
- GSC2B_SCc fourth wave violations
- Three, three, three, three, three pattern
- Declining vol. & slight bearish divergence
- G strong Gann relationship with C, D, E, and F (see table below to verify)
- Polarity line at $362.50, this means that if the price fails to hold above this line, more price action downwards is likely for some time; G candle is not a good indicator for strength to hold above $362.50
- D and F first two rising bottoms
- Short the pivot point G after smaller time frame candle confirmation or after dropping below the low of $311
- Notice the pitchfork, it is supporting this weeks candle with low buying volume, most likely the price will continue to decline along this 75% pitchfork line, going down to the 50% based on selling pressure
- G has good time relationships with D, E, and F further suggesting trend change
- Lastly, it appears that a small evening star is emerging as this weeks candle. This may be our entry point to short sell
Projection/Trade Tactic
- GSC2 bottom: $135 (Projected H)
- Short the pivot point G after smaller time frame candle confirmation or after dropping below the low of $311
- Will confirm the drop and trend change on the Daily chart in part III for ETH. The plan for now is to monitor this retracement off G and wait for the low to cross below $311 as the upward impulses are small right now
- High risk Stop loss: $315 (1% above $311)
- Low risk Stop loss: $494 (1% above G)
- Pick your profit level based on supports below or a MA bounce
• $285
• $205
• $165
• $120
• GSC2 projected bottom: $135
- Projected H may be 3rd bottom for buying
LWC: Trends
- GSC2A: C_D
- GSC2B_SCa: D_E
- GSC2B_SCb: E_F
- GSC2B_SCc: F_G
- GSC2B: D_G
TREND RANGE GFactor GDegree TIME
A_B $ 5.77 2.4021 432.37 16
A_C $ 1,594.74 39.9342 7,188.16 29
B_C $ 1,588.97 39.8619 7,175.14 13
B_D $ 74.64 8.6394 1,555.10 24
B_F $ 83.88 9.1586 1,648.55 39
C_D $ 1,514.33 38.9144 7,004.59 11
C_E $ 1,456.29 38.1614 6,869.05 17
C_F $ 1,505.09 38.7955 6,983.19 26
C_G $ 1,105.32 33.2464 5,984.34 32
D_E $ 58.04 7.6184 1,371.31 6
D_F $ 9.24 3.0397 547.15 15
D_G $ 409.01 20.2240 3,640.32 21
E_F $ 48.80 6.9857 1,257.43 9
E_G $ 350.97 18.7342 3,372.15 15
F_G $ 399.77 19.9942 3,598.96 6
A_F $ 89.65 9.4684 1,704.31 55
A_D $ 80.41 8.9672 1,614.09 40
הערה
The Ether price is on a DOWNWARD TREND off of the G pivot high, new top, confirmed by the Engulfing Red candle and multiple time alignments with other pivots. We are looking for a short entry point on the daily chart. A few things to note in the updated chart:
1. G3 is updated to $394.68 and failed at the pitchfork median line
2. G3 closed above polarity, but this week's candle fell below
3. Price may be accumulating between $310 and $395 for some time, as the rising MA's and pitchfork supports the downtrend
4. I expect the uptrends to be smaller on the daily chart: the MACD signal line descent and expected downward cross indicates the falling price range volatility
5. We will discover the entry point for the trade off the daily, because the weekly hints at a triangle formation, but our short term goal is the old tops from June
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