אתריוםשורט
Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on SEP 19, 2022
The weekend market is still short overall. That can continue to operate short orders according to the previous ideas. Previously given a relatively straightforward shift to long orders and time signals. That is, a decline or break out of the bear market large downtrend line, as well as the Fed resolution announced this month.
The market's biggest concern is still the Fed's subsequent policy trend. Will it continue to increase the use of 100 basis points after the unprecedented consecutive 75 basis points of interest rate hikes?
There is no doubt that 100 basis points will directly trigger a plunge, but it is not high in terms of probability. Secondly, even if 100 basis points were added, it would mean that the subsequent rate hike would have a total of about 50 basis points of space. As soon as the end of this year, the Fed is likely to withdraw from raising interest rates. So 100 basis points landing if it triggers a plunge, the probability is that the entire bear market is very worthwhile to enter the position. Be bold enough to lay out to half position.
If that adds 75 basis points, there is a certain probability that the market will be interpreted as positive at the moment, but it also belongs to the short side of the news. If it can cause a decline, it will also be an excellent opportunity to make long position. However, there is still a probability of a new low so that it can be treated as a swing operation.
There is still some time before the rate hike. The performance of U.S. stocks during this period is also significant. As long as it does not rebound too much, the probability of the above judgment will be increased. If the subsequent period of time the U.S. stocks rebound significantly, it may make the Fed's attitude more challenging, and the judgment on the aftermarket can not be so optimistic.
The market's biggest concern is still the Fed's subsequent policy trend. Will it continue to increase the use of 100 basis points after the unprecedented consecutive 75 basis points of interest rate hikes?
There is no doubt that 100 basis points will directly trigger a plunge, but it is not high in terms of probability. Secondly, even if 100 basis points were added, it would mean that the subsequent rate hike would have a total of about 50 basis points of space. As soon as the end of this year, the Fed is likely to withdraw from raising interest rates. So 100 basis points landing if it triggers a plunge, the probability is that the entire bear market is very worthwhile to enter the position. Be bold enough to lay out to half position.
If that adds 75 basis points, there is a certain probability that the market will be interpreted as positive at the moment, but it also belongs to the short side of the news. If it can cause a decline, it will also be an excellent opportunity to make long position. However, there is still a probability of a new low so that it can be treated as a swing operation.
There is still some time before the rate hike. The performance of U.S. stocks during this period is also significant. As long as it does not rebound too much, the probability of the above judgment will be increased. If the subsequent period of time the U.S. stocks rebound significantly, it may make the Fed's attitude more challenging, and the judgment on the aftermarket can not be so optimistic.
כתב ויתור
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