HIGH PROBABILTY SET UP IN EURCAD

19 בינו׳ 2015

Notice on weekly chart - EURCAD consistently violates the 200 week MA and trends above or beneath with strong consistency. Long term weekly channel indicates a Euro rate of 1.20 - 1.21 against the CAD. Just broke critical structural support and a minor two month head and shoulders pattern. Good entry for a short right now as it retraces into structure.

My strategy is to short with position 1 with X leverage at 1.85% risk (260 pips), position 2 with Y leverage at 1.73% risk (250 pips), and position 3 will have Z leverage at 1.73% risk (250 pips). Total risk exposure on 3 positions is 5.3% (760 pips).

Fundamentals align with technical picture. If oil bounces this year, we should see a bounce in the CAD as well. However, oil looks like it will continue falling which is why I prefer a large margin of retracement in this trade. (CAD and oil have above a .90 correlation coefficient.)

This is definitely a high probability set-up.

28 בנוב׳ 2015

הערה

Trade Reflection
Target Hit: NO - Trail on position 3 successful.
Target Trailed, why: Incase target specific does not get hit
Stop Hit: Immediately for position 1. Position 2 closed on inverse head and shoulders discovery
Signal for entry: Trend following
Trend continuation post stop breach: Extreme choppiness. Quick answer is yes and no.
Risk/Reward:
Poor Stop Placement:
Risk %: (1.84%), 2(1.73%)
Reward %: 2(13.27%) (Unknown trail)
Fundamental overlay:
Would you take the trade today? What would you do differently?: Should have acknowledged a deep retracement possibility in the inverse head and shoulders and entered long or held long upon closing my short trailing position. Should have acknowledged deep interior structure in the low 1.30's high 1.29's.