EUR/CAD ongoing analysis, bearish thesis

EUR/CAD, to me, is fundamentally bearish as well as technically and this video explains the bias from mostly a technical perspective. I will update the fundamentals in the updates below.

Technically, waiting for another 15 min break of 1.3135 on a closing basis to trigger shorts into the market and will then assess things from there.

We can approach this from a swing trading basis as well as a scalping basis. Updates will follow in due course.

הערה:

I am keeping an eye on oil. Supply risks our in favour of long CAD, but this technical scenario, not so much! The M-formation's neckline around $89 is crucial and we want the bull to break higher or we will face headwinds as WTI falls towards a breakout structure near $85.

הערה:

Here is the 4-hour scenario. We want 89.90 to break or 87.61 to hold. A break below 86.63 will open a risk of below 85 and tests of all of these support levels will hurt CAD long positions.

הערה:

Meanwhile, for short term scalping eurcad, so far the market is moving in our favour

הערה:

Looking at the DXY, H4 which is the best place to pinpoint the structure at the moment, we need this M-formation to play out to the upside for a scalp short in EUR/CAD. So far so good with eyes on the median 109.80 target level - This will weigh on the euro, and the CAD, but if the thesis is correct, CAD should outperform the euro fundamentally in an inflationary environment.

הערה:

This shows the relationship between eurcad and commodities during the pandemic era and subsequent rising inflation....