Preparing for ECB and UK Prime Minister

22 ביולי 2019

Trump said Thursday that a U.S. Navy ship had destroyed an Iranian drone in a “defensive action,” escalating already high tensions in the Gulf region. On the next day, Iran dismissed the report. So, investors’ reaction was expressed by rescuing in safe heaven assets and it is understandable. Later, the gold price was correlated with a decrease in the gold price. By the way, on Friday we recommended to sell gold, so those of our readers who followed our recommendation had to earn good money.

We have already recommended selling the oil (see our previous reviews) so, those of our readers had a chance to earn good money by selling oil (one of our main trading recommendation). So this week we continue to look for the opportunity to sell the asset, but be careful it is all about the unstable situation.

There was a lot of talk about a possible dollar intervention last week. It hadn't got to that part yet but the risk should be disregarded. The easiest and risk-free option to trade in such case is a short dollar. Moreover, at the end of the week, we are waiting for the outcome on US GDP. So this week we will continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar. Primarily against the Japanese yen and the British pound.

This week (on July 24th ) a new prime minister should appear in the UK. Odds are about 100% that Boris Johnson is going to be. In this regard, attention to Brexit among participants of the foreign exchange market is increased sharply, which means pound volatility will increase significantly. Our midterm position - short-pound. But let us warn you, some days it is quite possible the pound could be sold out quite tough. Nevertheless, we do not doubt the final outlook for its growth.

We will buy a pound not only against the dollar but also against the euro. And against the euro, this can be done in double volumes. EURGBP has climbed very high, and its decline seems to us the most likely scenario. The reason for its sales may be the outcome of the ECB meeting, which will be announced this week on Thursday. If the Central Bank gives us a hint to easing monetary policy, sales in EURGBP cannot be avoided. So we took a medium-term short position in EURGBP and look forward to a jackpot.