EURJPY Short

Fundamental analysis:

EUR
Bearish:
10 point rate cut announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) and they have already been cutting rates before.
20 billion per month in asset purchases.
Looming economic crisis in the Eurozone.
A lot of retail traders are now long upon the rally after the ECB announcement (a rally that trumps me after such bad outlook provided by Mario Draghi).

JPY
Bullish:
Considered a safe haven currency.
Strong economy.
Big investments in the eurozone (France, Germany, Portugal and Greece primarily) and they are looking to pull their money out since there is a crisis looming in Europe.

Short the "risk-on" currency against the "risk-off" currency


Technical analysis:

In the highlighted boxes are the key weekly levels. EURJPY has been in a downtrend for a few months now.

In my view we could touch 119.000 again, if we break this and find support than we could even rally on to 120.000 (this is a key monthly level, and in my view, in this strong downtrend, and with these bearish fundamentals surrounding the euro , should be hard to break) leaving the euro overvalued still, considering the sticky situation it is in, then down again to the lows at around 116.000 (which is where I will close a part of my trade). I will let 30-40% of my trade run to new chart lows because the Eurozone is in trouble.

I am also opening a long term short on this pair with low leverage and keeping it open because I see a lot of downside potential in this pair. Target 110.000 and then even 100.000.