EURNZD: Multidisciplinary approach

11 ביוני 2015

Interesting observations about EURNZD, if you are long from the bottom, good for you!
But where do you take profits? Where do you scale in or how do you trail stops?
Good questions that depend on your own methodology.

Here, I'm seeing multiple hints for a possible top in this relentless rally. Everyone's pessimistic about the New Zealand Dollar, which makes me want to do the opposite...but how do I justify it?

• In the chart we can see a potential Elliott Wave count and time analysis, which guess what? Matches my time at mode uptrend signal. An AB=CD measured target of swings gives us a projected top where wave A and B would be equal in size...Now, if this were indeed A and C and the correction in the middle was a wave B expanded flat, then this would be a possible top for this rally.
  
  
• Moving on, the time at mode profile balance point lies a bit higher than the AB=CD, and projected zigzag top (as long as wave C is 1:1 with wave A and not an extended wave C...or God forbid, an incomplete and huge wave 3, which would be very strange, but not impossible).
  
  
• The range target has been exceeded, and I'm positive there's an overwhelming number of NZD bears, and with the modes becoming smaller after the middle one with 11 bars, I wouldn't attempt a daily chart long here, too risky.
  

So, what to do?

You know the drill...Let's sit and wait for a confirmed short entry instead. -unless you have time in your hands and can trade lower timeframes like my friend Nick Coulby, who's sitting in a profitable lower tf long).

Cheers,

Ivan.