GBPJPY Long Bullish potentially upside to 209 Yen עבור CAPITALCOM:GBPJPY מאת DaveBrascoFX

GBP/JPY
inflation
Yields

In my previouse analysis(Click onthe chart, and read it, I mentioned I am forecasting GBPJPY Rising high what already happened...
GBPJPY RISING HIGHER ON MORE BUYING PRESSURE
LONG

GBPJPY RISING HIGHER ON MORE BUYING PRESSURE

GBP/JPY: On the way toward the 2015 high
GBP/JPY’s break above the October high of around 172.00 has opened the door toward the 2015 high of 196.00 in the coming weeks/months. In the near term, however, the cross looks a bit overbought. Hence some sort of consolidation/minor retreat can’t be ruled out. The broader upward pressure is unlikely to fade away while the cross holds above the 89-day moving average

The Bulls took control to buy GBP at 136.50 from there the market excessively made Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
The best is that all this mechanism has been confirmed,one after each other.
Look on the chart above: i HAVE MARKED SOME PHASES OF THE MARKET with yellow cirlcles:

The circles are on the lows (Bar chart) and on the lows of RSI(below).
Ususually the momentum oscillators follow the market´s motion, meaning if the market makes higher highs and higher lows, the RSI rises and follows, and vice versa.
On the ba chart the market makes higher highs and higher lows, but on the maked position(See RSI) the RSI suddenly makes lower lows,and breaks down the previouse low.

This is a powerfull indication that the bull trend is active,better:RSI lower lows represent and confrim that the trend will continue.
Currently the price is at 179,084whil GBPYEN is correcting, but even if the market comes down(in worse case to 155(unlesse it does not break 147, the trend is bullish...

This are marvellouse situations, where we can time our buying positions.

The corrections are just the results of some profit takings, but most importantly the buyers will distibute their buy positions and maintain the supports more stronger.
For instance as the market came down to 147 the buyers baught massively GBP and very agressively. So they will also defend this zone very agressively and powerfull in the future.

The resistance at around 184 will be very weak, as now more buying deltas and volume are shifting higher.

So we have higher highs and higher lows, we have rising POCs, we have shifting volme higher, we have rising supports, and they all are at the previouse pocs.

My further forecast is: If GBP breaks fast 184, we will go to 194,55 and then to 209,582.
If the market comes down, we will find triple supports at 162.170 and 173. From here we can time to buy the dips.
Below 147 GBP will lose value vs Yen and will go to 135,132,125,120. Fundamentally GBP and majors, but also other currencies are gaining weight vs Yen.

The British pound initially tried to rally a trading session on Tuesday, but then gave back gains to show signs of weakness. All things being equal, it looks like the ¥180 level continues to offer support.

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday, but gave back gains almost immediately to slam into the ¥180 level. However, the market has turned around to show signs of support yet again, and now it seems like we are just slamming around. With this being the case, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, but I do think that we have the potential for some type of explosive move. Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is the most dovish central bank out of all of the major powers, so that does continue to put a lot of negativity into the Japanese yen.

Furthermore, we are in a massive bullish run, and I think that continues to be a situation where you cannot fight the momentum. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I would be a buyer of dips as they offer value. Another thing that helps the market rally at this point is the fact that the British pound has been very strong for a while, and inflation in the United Kingdom continues to see a lot of pressure, therefore it looks like the Bank of England will continue to be very hawkish.
All things being equal, I think this continues to be a “buy on the dips” scenario, and the situation continues to be one that you will have to be cautious. After all, the volatility will be a major issue that you will have to deal with, with the ¥184 level as an area that has been massive resistance, and then the ¥185 level would be the next target. All things being equal, I do think that we see a lot of noise, so therefore keep your position size reasonable but I still favor the overall upside, as the market will continue to see plenty of upward pressure, due to the fact that the situation continues to be one that the buyers certainly have control over the longer-term, but it also continues to be more noise than anything else.

Fundamentals

GBP/JPY takes offers to refresh intraday low down for the third consecutive day.
UK CPI pushes back hawkish BoE bias by falling to 7.9% YoY in June.
Dovish comments from BoJ’s Ueda, market’s cautious optimism previously favored GBP/JPY bulls.
Risk catalysts, Japan inflation will be crucial to watch for clear directions.

GBP/JPY reverses the day-start recovery towards refreshing the intraday trough to around 180.80 amid early Wednesday morning in London, justifying the unwelcome prints of the UK inflation. Adding strength to the downside bias are the weaker Treasury bond yields. However, the market’s cautious optimism and dovish bias surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prod the cross-currency sellers of late.
UK inflation per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slides to 7.9% YoY in June versus 8.2% expected and 8.7% prior. More importantly, the Core CPI defies the 7.1% market forecast and previous readings by declining to with 6.9% YoY figures for the said month.
With this, the hawkish bias about the Bank of England (BoE) remains doubtful and drowns the GBP/JPY during the three-day losing streak.
On the other hand, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke at a news conference after the G20 meeting in India on Tuesday while stating that there was still some distance to sustainably achieve the 2% inflation target, defending the easy-money policy in turn.
It’s worth noting that fears surrounding Japan Prime Minister (PM) Fumio Kishida’s cabinet reshuffle and pessimism among the big industrial houses from Tokyo weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and challenge the GBP/JPY bears.
Elsewhere, the market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic amid the upbeat performance of the equities backed by the positive mood at the banks, as well as China headlines, which in turn puts a floor under the GBP/JPY prices.
While portraying the mood, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises more than 1.0% and the S&P500 Futures remain sidelined at the yearly high. However, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields stay pressured at 3.76% and 4.74% by the press time and prod the GBP/JPY bulls of late.
Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the UK inflation data, the GBP/JPY pair traders should watch the risk catalysts ahead of Friday’s Japan inflation statistics and British Retail Sales.

However, aggressive tightening could dent prospects for next year, raising the risk of a recession, and undermining the overbought GBP. On the other hand, the recent stimulus measures in China could help cushion some of the downside risks to economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy, providing a tailwind to European growth

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we are in a massive bullish run, and I think that continues to be a situation where you cannot fight the momentum. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I would be a buyer of dips as they offer value. Another thing that helps the market rally at this point is the fact that the British pound has been very strong for a while, and inflation in the United Kingdom continues to see a lot of pressure, therefore it looks like the Bank of England will continue to be very hawkish.

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Eurozone Inflation at 17-Month Low, Core Rate Rises

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big interest rates differentials between GB and Japn, and its becoming bigger. Producer input prices rose by 0.5% in the year to May 2023, down from a rise of 4.2% in the year to April 2023. Producer output (factory gate) prices rose by 2.9% in the year to May 2023, down from a rise of 5.2% in the year to April 2023. Inputs of crude oil and petroleum products provided the largest downward contributions to the change in the annual rates of input and output inflation, respectively. While annual producer price inflation rates have been slowing in recent months, the index levels for both input and output prices have been broadly stable since June 2022. On a monthly basis, producer input prices fell ..

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Japan will release some key data over the coming days that could provide some directionality for the JPY. The yen hasn’t been acting all that “normally” recently, as traders hang on comments from Japanese officials that might indicate intervention to support the currency.
To make matters more confusing, the head of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, has said some things that appear to be contradictory. There’s a ball of forex yarn here that needs to be untangled to get a better idea of where the yen could be headed in the medium-to-long term.

First, the data
Tomorrow, Japan will publish its trade balance which is expected to see a dramatic reduction in the trade deficit to just ¥46.7B from ¥1.37T reported in May. Japan typically has relatively large fluctuations in its trade statistics, but if the forecast is correct, it would be the smallest deficit since the latter part of 2021. The weakness of the currency (and brief recovery earlier this year) have been a key factor affecting the trade balance, which is an important component for the BOJ’s decision-making.

The shrinking deficit is expected to be because imports are forecast to decline while exports are expected to grow. Part of that dynamic is seen as a result of the weaker yen meaning that exports are priced at a higher value. On the other hand, the shrinking imports are a sign of lack of dynamism in the economy. The erosion of purchasing power from a weaker currency could mean Japanese citizens are buying fewer things. That would be a worrying sign for the BOJ.

What’s the BOJ up to?
Just last Sunday, the Governor of the BOJ admitted that the weakness in the yen was a concern, and that the bank could take measures to address it. He used more technical speech, of course, talking about restoring market pricing. But the takeaway is what mattered for the market reaction. Just two days later, on Tuesday, he appeared to backtrack, saying that the BOJ is committed to easing.

This changing commentary shows the dilemma of the BOJ, which wants to keep easing in order to support the economy. That means not worrying about a weaker yen, because that helps exports. But the weaker yen has contributed to rising inflation, and slowing the economy. So the BOJ would be worried about a weaker yen.

Clearing up the situation
Ueda has repeatedly said that he wants to see inflation “sustainably” rising at the target rate of 2%. Inflation has been higher than that for months now. What he means is that the current bout of high inflation is seen as “temporary”, and the result of non-market driven yen weakness that has raised the cost of imported goods. “Non-market driven” here means things like carry trade and bets that the BOJ won’t intervene as the currency weakens. The BOJ is trying to cajole markets into getting the yen higher without actually having to do anything to strengthen the yen.

If inflation turns around and starts rising, however, the BOJ might have to come to the conclusion that they can’t have their cake and eat it too. That might prompt a move towards shoring up the yen, such as widening the YCC again. Japanese annual June inflation is expected to tick up to 3.3% from 3.2% prior.

הערה

Japan will release some key data over the coming days that could provide some directionality for the JPY. The yen hasn’t been acting all that “normally” recently, as traders hang on comments from Japanese officials that might indicate intervention to support the currency.
To make matters more confusing, the head of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, has said some things that appear to be contradictory. There’s a ball of forex yarn here that needs to be untangled to get a better idea of where the yen could be headed in the medium-to-long term.

First, the data
Tomorrow, Japan will publish its trade balance which is expected to see a dramatic reduction in the trade deficit to just ¥46.7B from ¥1.37T reported in May. Japan typically has relatively large fluctuations in its trade statistics, but if the forecast is correct, it would be the smallest deficit since the latter part of 2021. The weakness of the currency (and brief recovery earlier this year) have been a key factor affecting the trade balance, which is an important component for the BOJ’s decision-making.

The shrinking deficit is expected to be because imports are forecast to decline while exports are expected to grow. Part of that dynamic is seen as a result of the weaker yen meaning that exports are priced at a higher value. On the other hand, the shrinking imports are a sign of lack of dynamism in the economy. The erosion of purchasing power from a weaker currency could mean Japanese citizens are buying fewer things. That would be a worrying sign for the BOJ.

What’s the BOJ up to?
Just last Sunday, the Governor of the BOJ admitted that the weakness in the yen was a concern, and that the bank could take measures to address it. He used more technical speech, of course, talking about restoring market pricing. But the takeaway is what mattered for the market reaction. Just two days later, on Tuesday, he appeared to backtrack, saying that the BOJ is committed to easing.

This changing commentary shows the dilemma of the BOJ, which wants to keep easing in order to support the economy. That means not worrying about a weaker yen, because that helps exports. But the weaker yen has contributed to rising inflation, and slowing the economy. So the BOJ would be worried about a weaker yen.

Clearing up the situation
Ueda has repeatedly said that he wants to see inflation “sustainably” rising at the target rate of 2%. Inflation has been higher than that for months now. What he means is that the current bout of high inflation is seen as “temporary”, and the result of non-market driven yen weakness that has raised the cost of imported goods. “Non-market driven” here means things like carry trade and bets that the BOJ won’t intervene as the currency weakens. The BOJ is trying to cajole markets into getting the yen higher without actually having to do anything to strengthen the yen.

If inflation turns around and starts rising, however, the BOJ might have to come to the conclusion that they can’t have their cake and eat it too. That might prompt a move towards shoring up the yen, such as widening the YCC again. Japanese annual June inflation is expected to tick up to 3.3% from 3.2% prior.

הערה

itcoin lagging gold despite weakening dollar: A Bitcoin, gold, USD analysis

The dollar continues to weak, now 12.5% off its 20-year high last year
Gold and Bitcoin tend to strengthen when the dollar falls
The relationship has turned this week though with Bitcoin lagging

The dollar continues to get hammered.

After dominating virtually every currency throughout the COVID pandemic, the DXY index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, hit a twenty-year high in Q4 of last year. Since then, however, it has shed 12.5% of its value.
The fall comes as inflation continues to cool, with the most recent CPI data putting year-over-year inflation at 3%. While core inflation remains a little stickier, the market is nonetheless betting that one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in recent history is finally coming to a close.
The dollar strengthens in times of uncertainty because correlations go to one in a crisis, while there is a flight to safety as investors peel back on the risk curve. And there is no safer asset than the global reserve currency, so the dollar picks up steam in such turbulent periods.
While the last couple of years do not quantify as a recession, the turbulent climate which has arisen out of rampant inflation and spiking interest rates (not to mention a once-in-a generation global pandemic and all the bespoke economic fallout that entailed) has caused mass uncertainty. This in turn has increased the attractiveness of the dollar.

Additionally, the faster pace of interest rates in the US compared to many nations worldwide has encouraged capital to flow into the greenback. But with inflation cooling off and the market betting the rate hiking cycle is now nearing its conclusion, the climate has changed – and the dollar has pulled back as a result.

How are other assets affected by the dollar?
This is all relatively straight-forward, but what does this mean for other assets?

Well, as mentioned above, the dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning it is also the lifeblood of the global financial system. In such a way, the effects are widespread. If we look at the classic example of gold, a falling dollar means it takes more dollars to purchase the same amount of gold (and vice-versa). So we tend to see gold rise when the dollar falls, even if it may be nothing to do with gold itself.

In the next chart, I have plotted the correlation between the dollar index and gold over the last year, which shows a strong negative relationship in the -0.8 to -0.9 range for much of the period (albeit with a recent weakening).
Let’s now look at Bitcoin, gold’s wannabe best friend.With Bitcoin far more volatile as an asset than gold, and given the numerous crypto-specific scandals (Terra, Celsius, FTX etc) of the past year, this is unsurprising.Why is Bitcoin selling off amid dollar weakness?
This takes us to an interesting finding: why is Bitcoin not being buoyed by this weaker dollar? Gold is up 2.4% in the last week, taking advantage of the dollar’s dip. On the other hand, Bitcoin has actually fallen slightly, which goes against trend.

In truth, I am not really sure why the buying activity has been subdued. Perhaps buyers did their part after the XRP ruling last week, and are hesitant to pile further in while the market finds its footing. But that is a shaky theory at best.

Even looking at miners in the next chart, we can see that they are offloading Bitcoin rather than buying, which they have been doing since the start of the month. It seems that for whatever reason, there are just not as many buyers out there in the last week compared to normal, and the sell pressure has not been soaked up by a softening dollar. To be clear, this is far from alarming and a totally benign occurrence. My gut feeling is that this is simply a summer lag, which has tended to see the lowest trading activity in Bitcoin markets in the past, too.

Either way, it’s an interesting little tidbit. The relationship between gold, Bitcoin and dollar is always fascinating to track as it incorporates so much macro and so many intriguing variables, so it is worth keeping an eye on. If the trend continues to deviate, a deeper analysis may be warranted. But for now, it feels OK to assume this is just buyers taking a little summer break, and a minor abnormality.

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This trade is stil open and active

relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open

European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.

Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.

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TRADE OPEN and active : YEN DOWN! YEN DOWN YEN DOWN!

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TRADE OPEN and active : YEN DOWN! YEN DOWN YEN DOWN!

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Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.

הערה

Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.

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trade is open

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trade is open

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trade is open

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trade is open

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trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.

הערה

trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.

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Low volatility next week till friday. The pullbacks are profit takings, low trading volume and low volatility of the market makers.

Trading oppurtunities are in USD FX specially USD JPY...Keep monitor them closely.

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Dow Rises for 11th Session

The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.

US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.

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Trade open
Bought today more .New Buy Signal

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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..

long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks

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Trade open
I short the Yen , and am long majors
BOJ to keep ultra-low rates
Kazuo Ueda has vowed to keep ultra-loose policy until he is more convinced the economy can weather global headwinds and allow firms to keep hiking wages next year

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trade open

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US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher

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Trend Bullish
long
Japan's 'Mr Yen' Sakakibara expects no yen intervention
Australian Dollar Set For Big Move

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New Buy Signal
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause

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Nasdaq SP500 Dow Reversal
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%

DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.

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Japanese Yen Breaks Above 145

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long

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