GBPUSD: Now we have confirmation for my stupid short idea...
מעודכן
The technical chart has confirmed a weekly downtrend in the Pound as I expected, and despite being trailed out in profit, I'm looking to reenter shorts with force at market open, with a significant position size, aiming to risk 0.5-1% if the idea fails.
In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-15/may-to-seek-hard-brexit-by-leaving-eu-market-says-sunday-times
The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a relative strength basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors bearish trades in the
GBPUSD pair.
Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have:
A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from bearish trades.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie
In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-15/may-to-seek-hard-brexit-by-leaving-eu-market-says-sunday-times
The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a relative strength basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors bearish trades in the
GBPUSD pair.Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have:
- 11 week 'Time at Mode' downtrend signal, confirmed on close last Friday, target is 1.13436 initially, to be hit before March 24th ideally.
- 13 day downtrend, continuation of the decline after the US dollar interest rate hike on December which kicked the decline off. After recently breaking down under the Presidential election key level and retesting it at the recent top, the Pound accelerated down, flashing the technical signal in my previous publication. It retested resistance and confirmed a daily downtrend on Friday. Targets are 1.18864 and 1.17693, to be achieved by Jan 31st or sooner. Keep an eye on these levels for a potential reaction in price. Also watch the strange flash crash day key levels, and the high and low of that day, since it may prove to be significant once again, although it's still a mystery what caused that event.
A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from bearish trades.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie
הערה
Well, I was right, shame I didn't reenter last week, the opportunity is gone, and my broker still closed.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-15/cable-plunges-october-flash-crash-lows-after-mays-clean-hard-brexit-headlines
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/4/4A1kp6IE.png
עסקה פעילה
The retrace here is a good excuse to start shorting, initial size should be 0.04 lots every 10k usd in your account, stop 1.2272 or more conservative at 1.2386.הערה
הערה
I think we will have good continuation here.
הערה
It's a bit uncertain in the short term, although a daily rally closer to weekly resistance would give a better short entry.My instinct tells me: this week, do squat...the action is pure and utter rubbish, only manipulation during a thin market.
הערה
One thing: did price drop or not before? (it dropped) So the immediate technical signal was correct, problem is the market overreacted to a leaked speech apparently. Can the weekly downtrend pan out still? Yes, unless we go above 1.23854, so, better wait and look to short on weakness after this week.הערה
הערה
Notice how we reversed against the weekly downtrend mode...I'd wait until next week, or until Friday to enter any trade though.
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