GBP - Simplified
Looking at the open and the way things are starting to line up, this is the outcome I'm thinking is most likely.
Still hedged, waiting for the price to reach the short position, release the buys at breakeven, then let price go down to meet up with my sells down below. I will have a 4x hedge order in where the stop loss is shown (1.2295), entry at 1.2263, target at 1.217
Looking at the channel to continue up into the resistance area, then bounce down off the trend trend line from above off the double top rollover (solid yellow) and follow down the dotted yellow line to 1.217 for the target and finding some support.
Trade will follow with this idea used to track the trade, as the other one does not make much sense, except to me lol (Sorry)
Still hedged, waiting for the price to reach the short position, release the buys at breakeven, then let price go down to meet up with my sells down below. I will have a 4x hedge order in where the stop loss is shown (1.2295), entry at 1.2263, target at 1.217
Looking at the channel to continue up into the resistance area, then bounce down off the trend trend line from above off the double top rollover (solid yellow) and follow down the dotted yellow line to 1.217 for the target and finding some support.
Trade will follow with this idea used to track the trade, as the other one does not make much sense, except to me lol (Sorry)
הערה
Rising channel continues. I've seen this pattern too many times. Very High probability setup.Head and shoulders has already played, although the right shoulder is rather flat, there is aggressive selling off of it, so the level we are coming into is the neckline, and the pattern and formation of the channel coming into the neckline gives me a lot of confidence in what's coming. Target is a soft target, but I think it can go lower....
הערה
Very nice supply zone there (I have mine there too :) ) as well where the sell off began. Very strong sell of makes me think the target may be somewhere in the 1.211 - 1.213 areasהערה
Price has support on 1.223, still within the extremes of the channel, even though we have come out of the core. Looking for it to try and make a new extreme (at the entry area) then start making it's way back down again Entry still valid as very probableהערה
Rsi showing divergence (5 minutes), and alignment to the entry point areaהערה
Antsy sellers coming in too early, stops right in the way of entry, more help to get itהערה
Not taking the bait... looks like a short stop runהערה
Also the extreme line of the channel, so more eager sellers going too soon, just collecting stops to hitהערה
Whipsaw, then down, that's what I'm expecting right now.הערה
1.222 also has support, and probably the better one for institutions to laucnh the whipsaw stop hunt fromהערה
Violence in the candles building. Big move coming, shake everyone outהערה
Yes double top, yes fell out of the channelNO we're inbetween 2 key levels, so I don't believe any of it
הערה
Confuse and take.....הערה
Late eager sellers in, they'll be hurt the worstהערה
Short term trendline break, hurt timeהערה
😂 sorry, I saw that coming ....הערה
Now to hurt the top huntersהערה
Confused are going longהערה
Wait for it.....הערה
few more to go long on the other side and reach the trendline, and it's all overהערה
Close but no cookie, just a bit longer, the whipsaw is not overהערה
More senseless confusion, create doubts on levels and directionהערה
You just wanted long, got stopped out, now you're short, you'll get stopped outהערה
We'll break the high, and they'll go long at the peak, and then the bottom falls outהערה
They've been bamboozoled too many times, this time they go long, forget the stop loss......עסקה פעילה
Buys closed at net positive 3 pips gainהערה
All the longs and no stops will be plenty to sustain a nice moveהערה
If all of my thinking is correct or at least close, all the ones holding long with no stops will be the ones to sustain the move, by gradually dumping out over time.הערה
Make them think there's hope after the first stops are hit, so they hang onהערה
Get them to buy some more, thinking they'll recover losses from earlier.....הערה
Yellow trend line showing signs it's about take over.....הערה
Now dotted yellow, soon, price should fallהערה
One more trap because almost nobody knows about that dotted yellow lineהערה
The dotted yellow is sort of 'arbitrary'. It more or less represent the agression of the price move. I think it represents how fast orders are being moved down, and how fast orders are being filled and take effect. It's a little personal theroy I've been messing withהערה
Still holding the lower sell hedge carried in since friday, no extra position at the top, but if I had one, once price finally breaks below 1.225 by a little, I would put the trade (that position) risk free, but not just yet in case we have a stop runהערה
Pretty sure the solid yellow will be the limit, but they see you and everyone else sitting there too, just wait a minute more...הערה
Bringing buy stop hedge down to 1.2285הערה
See, stop run.....הערה
But if we don't drop after this, I will be a little concernedהערה
Starting to get some order blocks on the 5m at the supply zone, we may be ok...הערה
Price has sort of stalled, though we do look to be pointing downward as far as things look with what's going on. Just woke from a nap, still watching and hedge stop in the same place at 1.2285הערה
Just made a dive from the top of the small channel to the extreme bottom quickly, good sign of things to comeהערה
Falling out of the channel.... Now I would set the trade position to break even and let it ride to target. I'm still observing an exit for the lower buy position half of the hedge I carried inהערה
"risk free" let me use proper termsהערה
Buy hedge moved to 1.2271הערה
Breakout stop run to get the move started, should see some more follow through soonהערה
Setting the lower hedge target to 1.22, time to get out of this one and get fresh for a new one to try and continue to target without so much weight in itהערה
1.228* little room, I'd like to get on out of the lower position... Not get hedged againהערה
We are back below a key level, and expecting this to be a retestהערה
Hedge was pushed up, 1.2286, original spotMay get hit still, and the move is breaking down if it doesn't go now
הערה
Looking like another shakeout, or the falling apart point of the idea....עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ
Hedged again..... Idea brokenהערה
Supply zone ran out, that was the last stand for the ideaהערה
Buy hedge targeted for 1.233הערה
I would think, if nothing else, there should be lots of rejection and sellers off the top most levels of the price range weven been in for quite some time(much larger picture) seeing the strong reaction from this level before let's me know that even if it does drift up slightly higher, a rejection should very likely happen, as it did the last time we reached up here earlier today
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