GOLD (GC1! Futures) Mid Term Update
מעודכן
Following on from my previous analysis, GOLD has made a sustained move upwards from the lower PURPLE zone, hitting both the 0.5 FIB and the GOLDEN ZONE respectively:
At the time of writing this, price has now settled at the top of the current PURPLE zone, and has stalled at a daily trendline starting from the 20th July. There have already been three major rejections, with price action now essentially testing the trend for the fourth time.
The the pre-war gap is also waiting to be filled. A move down from this area would form an inverse head & shoulders pattern on the daily, which would signal a real reversal from the trend established a few weeks ago on the weekly.
Just as a refresher, until a trend reversal has been FIRMLY confirmed on both the daily & weekly timeframes, the long term target of the original H&S pattern still stands. That would be around 1745 on the futures chart:
As we all know, Gold is a safe haven asset, so it makes sense that it has seen some strength over the coming days, however, it is important to remember that while war is a sad thing, the market will not be spooked by it forever. As we saw with the Ukraine war, once boundaries have been established from either side, you can expect to see a return to the norm for golds normal fundamental plays.
There are now two possible scenarios to consider:
1) A break above the aforementioned trend line, with a retest of the PURPLE zone leading Gold to move up higher. The first initial target would be the minor zone at 1966. A break above leading to the higher minor zone, that being 2010.
OR
2) Sunday nights open leads to a short consolidation, leading a sharp drop of gold over the following days. Keep in mind, while price action has been bullish in the short term, on the daily and weekly timeframes, the trend is still BEARISH.
I will be posting more closer to time analysis throughout the week - based on the 30 min chart - so keep an eye out. Please keep in mind, this style of trading is based on confirmations. This is not scalping, or "quick money".
This is not financial advice, so please, manage your risk accordingly.
At the time of writing this, price has now settled at the top of the current PURPLE zone, and has stalled at a daily trendline starting from the 20th July. There have already been three major rejections, with price action now essentially testing the trend for the fourth time.
The the pre-war gap is also waiting to be filled. A move down from this area would form an inverse head & shoulders pattern on the daily, which would signal a real reversal from the trend established a few weeks ago on the weekly.
Just as a refresher, until a trend reversal has been FIRMLY confirmed on both the daily & weekly timeframes, the long term target of the original H&S pattern still stands. That would be around 1745 on the futures chart:
As we all know, Gold is a safe haven asset, so it makes sense that it has seen some strength over the coming days, however, it is important to remember that while war is a sad thing, the market will not be spooked by it forever. As we saw with the Ukraine war, once boundaries have been established from either side, you can expect to see a return to the norm for golds normal fundamental plays.
There are now two possible scenarios to consider:
1) A break above the aforementioned trend line, with a retest of the PURPLE zone leading Gold to move up higher. The first initial target would be the minor zone at 1966. A break above leading to the higher minor zone, that being 2010.
OR
2) Sunday nights open leads to a short consolidation, leading a sharp drop of gold over the following days. Keep in mind, while price action has been bullish in the short term, on the daily and weekly timeframes, the trend is still BEARISH.
I will be posting more closer to time analysis throughout the week - based on the 30 min chart - so keep an eye out. Please keep in mind, this style of trading is based on confirmations. This is not scalping, or "quick money".
This is not financial advice, so please, manage your risk accordingly.
הערה
Price is already rejecting the trendline mentioned on Saturday...I will provide some closer to time analysis after UK open in the morning!
הערה
Price action fell down to the neutral pivot overnight - I hope you didn't rush into a long without confirmation..I see potential for a final bounce to around 1940 - 1945 CFD prices, so keep an eye out. Whether that is today or at a later point this week remains to be seen.
הערה
TPO is forming a trend, ie a continuation of the trend...The volume profile is also very stretched today, which makes sense considering how the last trading session saw interest rise till the end.
Not expecting a high move up or down today, more of a slow grind up.
Also, NY data released and came in negative. This was slightly negative for the dollar, but not so much to cause an immediate reversal...
הערה
Notice how the price perfectly wicked the bottom of the purple zone?If we had placed a traditionally break out trade - ie not looking for confirmation - then potentially the position may have been triggered, and we would have become liquidity for the bigger players.
I hope todays price actions show you why it is important to have clear, set out scenarios requiring CONFIRMATION. We are traders, NOT gamblers.
הערה
Price is still short term BULLISH.I am still looking for a short around 1940-1945 CFD prices.
A long from neutral at the moment is not a bad move.
הערה
Please be advised, any shorts from the 1940 - 1945 should ONLY be after a CANDLE CLOSE REJECTION from the area.The rejection is most likely going to happen after one of the many news events this week, so manage your risk accordingly.
הערה
Please, also keep in mind, in the event that price DOES not reach the 1940 - 1945 zone, the breakout + retest shorting area below the purple box is still valid.הערה
The new release today was good for the dollar, so we should start seeing some downward pressure on gold...הערה
Selling pressure is piling in, it appears the trendline has heldהערה
Closing my short here, don't see anymore downside for today specificallyGoing to look for higher shorts tomorrow..
הערה
Take note of this pattern for today. Perhaps the news release tomorrow or Thursday will give more downward pressure...
הערה
1940 - 1945 now hit as expected.If you set limit sells in this area, well done!
הערה
I hope this makes it very clear to all of you:Bulls make money...
Bears make money...
Pigs get slaughtered...
הערה
For those in a short from 1940-1945, keep a tight stop for now.הערה
Break even is hit, but price is now in a minor zone.Going to short again here.
הערה
הערה
SL's can now be left above R3.I hope you can now appreciate the benefits of this style of trading. Just to recap the last 24 hours of price action:
1) Our short yesterday was closed yesterday at the neutral pivot as price action had clearly stalled. A clear shorting oppurtunity.
2) The blue pivot then gave a good longing opportunity over night. A clear longing oppurtunity.
3) Any longs could be closed / limit sells executed at the 1940 - 1945 zone. Due to the entering at the top of the wave, it gave you the option to either place a SL at breakeven or run a tight stop.
4) Price broke up higher, but because of the logical entry, you either took no loss or a very small loss in exchange for a far superior entry point.
Any confirmed break + close above the current minor zone will lead to a push higher to the next minor zone.
הערה
Continuing to see selling pressure pile in.This will be the last update for the day. This position can be held into tomorrows data releases. Perhaps we will get a small move up - to form a double top - but we are now in a power position.
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
Take profit here.We will go again tommorow!
הערה
Posting a location of where profit was taken for future reference:Ideally, you want to be taking profit around a pivot point; this is because these are key levels that often retested.
Keep in mind, my pivot point calculation is based on the "Classic" method...
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
Going to close my own personal long here from R2:This will be the final update for this particular post, and I will create a new post tommorow!
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