Gold Due for its next cycle.

9 ביולי 2018

I believe that Gold is positioned for its next cycle upwards into the 1300s. DXY is starting to show weakness due to trade war tensions between China and US. Next comes inflationary pressure due to increase prices of raw materials and Chinese products which may be curbed by the FED increasing interest rates in the coming months. Even then, Gold has been accumulating between the 1240 and 1260 region.

Things to monitor:
1) CFTC Commitment of Traders net bullish positions
2) A convincing close of the day above 1260 in gold.
3) Potential escalation of US-China trade tension and inflation.
4) Potential decoupling between DXY and Gold in the coming weeks. i.e. Gold spike while DXY remains neutral.

Entry at 1253, medium term trade with targets at 1270 and 1300.

10 ביולי 2018

הערה

Yesterday's move upwards had a strong rejection due to spike in DXY, which suggests gold isn't quite ready to move up. Gold did not close above 1260 and formed a shooting star which signalled a short term sell; however, this does not bother me much as I am in this for the long haul.

Note: Staggering your trades would help a lot for these types of longer term trades, I wouldn't fully commit to a bullish position just yet as DXY looks like it could rally to 95 anytime as fed hinted there could be 2 upcoming interest rate hikes.

12 ביולי 2018

הערה

Today's move was a good sign for Gold as it advanced along with DXY (even though they are supposed to move in opp directions at this stage). I wouldn't go so far as to say gold and DXY are decoupling because the market is too convoluted at this point with so much going on the past week.

Looks like this is gonna need lots of patience. I expect to see bullish CFTC speculative net positions in Friday's report.