NFP on main stage / correction might be ahead

10 בינו׳

As discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "Technical analysis: #2,665.80 - #2,672.80 represents new / old Resistance and by my calculation chances for breaking it again without new news are Technically really impossible (too far fetched and without catalyst to take the Price-action towards those / current High’s). Investor’s strategy was clear where Gold was expected to Trade on huge gains, heavily pressured on speculations fuelled by current Fed aftermath. If I accept the similarities on past events, then I am looking for a reversal towards #2,652.80 benchmark again but not before a red Weekly candle (occurring at the moment). The Short-term Bearish bias (much needed correction ahead) calls for strong consolidation. Less Volatility on Hourly 4 chart guarantees clear direction on the next Daily candle (possibly mixed values regarding the trend #50% / #50%, as absence of further news and speculations may engage the steep correction on Gold). Day Traders have no other alternative with such distorted indicators than to look at (#30m) Bollinger bands which give. As stated ahead and announcing current strength of Gold throughout my yesterday's session commentary, I will not turn to Selling as Gold is now Overbought. If however #2,672.80 gets invalidated to the upside and market closes above, Bullish Short-term bias is restored."


Technical analysis: Bullish Gap was filled nicely throughout yesterday’s session and as the result you witnessed strong Buying pressure on Gold. Eminent recovery candles on DX are still keeping Gold way above its fair value and merely ranged within #2,672.80 - #2,682.80 Higher High's (High's / Low's) belt. Both Hourly 1 and 4 chart’s are Bullish due to this consolidation but since Daily chart is Trading slightly above it’s pivot point, I was staying with the dominant Medium-term trend which remains aggressively Bullish. It is important to note that for Bullish Medium-term sustainability, it is crucial to close the week above the #2,700.80 level (posing as an strong benchmark lately) which can be possible only with NFP downside surprise. As expected the Price-action reached the Top of the accumulation zone as I was again operating with Buying orders, aiming for at least for #2,682.80 local High’s (Top of the current Daily chart’s configuration).


My position: Regardless of the Bull trend, I do believe that correction is due and #2,652.80 benchmark test is once again my Short-term Target. As stated above, NFP numbers will reveal where Price-action is headed next as I do expect upside surprise on NFP however not so strong / I will Trade the news. I do believe that #2,700.80 benchmark test is impossible without downside surprise on NFP however NFP or not, I do believe that correction is ahead and once #2,672.80 gets invalidated, Gold may deliver #30 - #40 point decline.