Sell order activated / DX on recovery candles limiting uptrend

19 באוק׳ 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold is under unprecedented Volatility on current session with Gold and the Futures price on a tight spread. This is of course the product of heavy speculation in the Metals market, fuelled by the expectation that the Fed’s new tapering talks will be accepted. Needless to mention, this environment is not Gold friendly. I can't approach this situation Fundamentally but I do expect a pullback back towards #1,633.80 again, as the main Support and Lower Higher Low’s zone, since Support cluster is nearby (#1,621.80 - #1,627.80). Hourly 4 chart’s Triangle is invalidated and printed an breakout as Price-action will most likely close the session below the first Resistance. Despite Bond Yields stabilization, the continuous Low’s on DX and of course the parabolic rise on Usd-Jpy (near Quadruple Top), Gold hasn't made a new Lower Low’s yet (much expected #3rd Low’s extension) making me believe that the underlying trend remains Bearish and Price-action can start losing with every Hourly candle any minute early on.


Fundamental analysis: Further argument for the sequence is that the Weekly chart (#1W) is defending the bounce it made on Monday near the Weekly chart’s Resistance, as I doubt it will last. My advice for Short-term Traders is to Sell Gold on tight stops whenever you see pullbacks on DX (which is the case for now) - Selling every High strategy - keeping in mind that the Support on the Hourly 4 chart was always tested after every High since the start of #2022. Unless #1,670.80 configuration is compromised (market closing above), in which case Traders may see #1,633.80 break and #1,627.80 (ultimate Bottom and demand zone, former Annual Resistance zone) in extension. It is important to note that DX’s full scale decline of more than # -1.00% was totally ignored by Gold. This explains how unstable Gold’s Intra-day basis has become and how cautious Traders should position themselves accordingly.


Technical analysis: Gold is close to a critical point on the Hourly 4 chart. Buying every Low for the #4th consecutive time in succession, candle sequence that was last seen on December #2013 that led to a new Yearly Top. Following the sequence, December's #1,230.30 bottom was crossed, Gold extended the decline by shorting the #1,365.30 local High’s. I expect the same at the moment - small pullback upwards and #1,627.80 - #1,633.80 test, then final push towards #1,600.80 extension. Usually, based on my experience, Gold always repeats it’s own trends / cycles. Similar scenario is happening at the moment. Fundamental side is giving me mixed signals and no patterns with High reliability. Also, Technical side switched to Bearish regarding the Short-term (most of the charts) as I will approach the market with extreme caution. Resemblance from #2017 Year: Support sequence and many similarities with March #2017’s #1,472.80 test, which if was broken would lead to the December’s #1,458.80 Low’s, where Price-action was expected strong rebound towards #1,500.80 by mid-January. The Monthly candle is already at (# -1.00%) and decreasing (similar to times when RSI was seen Trading at #33.043). Today’s sideways performance is due to the Oversold Hourly 4 chart and DX struggling to make Bullish comeback. Pullbacks on this downtrend will be surely offered and Selling entries can be calculated based on how DX and Bond Yields will be Trading in the coming sessions. From now on, the correlation of Gold with DX may be even stronger, as December and January (early #Q1) are Gold - DX correlation Months. I expect less or no Buying pressure throughout tomorrow’s session and total Selling domination ahead. It is important to note that DX fills every Gap within #3 - #5 sessions horizon.


My position: I have engaged additional Short-term Selling order (#1,645.80 entry point) along with portion of Medium-term Selling orders Targeting #1,633.80 Support first, then #1,600.80 mark in extension. Gold is under total Selling domination currently, Selling every local High's.