Gold mimics the DX movements on Hourly basis

18 ביולי 2022

Gold's general commentary: I have closed my set of Selling orders Intra-day throughout Thursday’s session with huge Profits and aiming to Sell again early on if tomorrow’s E.U. opening don’t disappoint (aiming for #1,678.80 test / Bearish candle sequence with #81.77% probability) - depends aswell on how Gold will close the market throughout today’s session and of course, how DX will Trade in the coming sessions. Again I need to state that these were Fundamentally driven sessions and Technical analysis is only useful when the market returns to normal Trading conditions. Those show that the Daily chart is still showcasing total Selling domination, DX is on decent upswing but not wildly below Friday’s session local High’s and Bullish Gap fill (DX’s Daily chart) is what worried me that might be potentially filled and engage small Buying impulse on Gold which can interfere in my model (sole reason why I was without the order). Hourly 4 chart’s #1,700.80 barrier also broke and since May #11 #2021 Year, every marginal break of the Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone in succession didn’t turned into a reversal, fractal which should be repeated at the moment. So if #1,700.80 - #1,698.80 fractal holds (all chances are that it will not on the next wave), expect a bounce back to #1,722.80 and #1,732.80 (former strong Support) in extension.


Technical analysis: The Lower than expected U.S. data (in particular which missed the forecast) should have a positive impact on DX / hence negative on Gold (as Gold is much more diagonally correlated lately to DX rather then any other market class). So if Resistance zone fails to hold, Price-action will be calling for #1,758.80 extension, if not, Gold may correct few points towards the Support zone, but nothing serious regarding today's session which I don't expect much from. There is interesting fact that I received at least #250 inquiries of Traders with liquidated accounts, trying to Buy every Low that Gold makes on aggressively Bearish Fundamental catalyst (DX on #52-Week High’s), which is important lesson to take not to Trade against Fundamentals and oversizing the account in the same manner. Hourly 4 chart has turned Neutral as Gold has completed #4 straight sideways candles that may be Supported above the #1,706.80 - #1,708.80 Support zone but at the same time failing to close above the #1,732.80 Resistance zone on Daily chart which is the deciding factor between a Bullish and Bearish breakout. Of course, DX will continue to represent the catalyst and even though it's the DX that's mostly correlated with Gold at the moment, therefore I will continue to monitor closely all charts with the DX not within it's own #MA50 and #200, but on Weekly chart's (#1W) Golden Cross.


My position: Gold is Naturally pricing in a mild Intra-Day much needed recovery candle sequence, but all that might be strongly limited near #1,730.80 - #1,732.80 Resistance zone, which can be used as an excellent re-Sell area (Selling every Top that Gold makes proven to be excellent strategy in the past #2 weeks). However, it all depends on how DX will Trade in the coming sessions, and if #1,732.80 breaks, Gold may exceed the sequence towards #1,752.80 psychological barrier. Also, you have the alternative / option not to Trade this. Personally, I am in a no rush to engage new order and will sit out today's session.