Buy order active / Gold under total Bullish domination

29 ביולי 2022

Gold's general commentary: As discussed, as long as #1,742.80 - #1,752.80 (Spot numbers in my focus) holds, Gold is more likely to push towards #1,780’s for a #2-Month High’s test, still within the Hourly 4 chart’s Buying zone. This week was packed with Fundamental announcements and real trend should be revealed (as yesterday’s session Fundamental catalyst interfered and was already digested by markets), since yesterday’s Price-action delivered the session High test around #1,752.80 and market closed the session above it, triggering most of the Sellers Stop-losses and as Bond Yields reversed and DX printed another red candle above the Hourly 4 chart’s Support, Gold again reversed above #1,752.80 psychological barrier and is currently comfortably Trading above it. This configuration shows how unstable market has become and that I should expect side Swings on Short-term, but those are not cause for an alarm as underlying Medium-term trend remains Bearish.


Technical analysis: The Short-term Price-action has turned Bullish just over the Hourly 4 chart’s strong Resistance of #1,752.80 and it is interesting to mention that the Hourly 4 chart is Bullish and Daily chart to a certain extent is Bearish (counterbalancing one another). Everything depends upon the DX on a decline and to a lesser extent Bond Yields (on spiral downtrend due to the recession news) so I can't make any Short-term recommendations other than implementing strict Risk management and Buying order I am already operating with. See also how Xau-Usd (spot price) and GC (Futures price) are finally closing the gap and getting into tight range again. Technically, #1,782.80 should be next extension, with Support cluster on #1,752.80 - #1,742.80 - if tested, Gold might potentially stay Neutral for a few sessions in a symmetrical manner as April #14 - 16. If #1,765.80 gets broken, #1,773.80 should be eminent first extension. My analysis filters unexpected Medium-term reversals and my model still Technically aims for #1,678.80 Lower Low’s extension then #1,651.80 stabilization zone (once the local Top is priced in).


Gold's Intra-day trend: The Price-action has altered the downtrend just above the Daily chart’s Support cluster as discussed throughout my commentary, with current #1,742.80 - #1,752.80 configuration representing strong Support cluster. As long as Support cluster holds, there are Higher probabilities to reach the Hourly 4 chart's Lower High's Upper zone (which is right now priced below #1,782.80 on Spot prices but touch may be done even Lower depending on the aggression of the variance). Technically, Gold is easing critically Oversold Medium-term levels, as on such Fundamental landscape, it is not wise to Sell the market. After all, on the Hourly 4 timeframe (aswell on Hourly charts), the pattern is an solid Ascending Channel which lately almost every time touched Lower High's trendline and has a limit just over #1,773.80, my main point of interests (depending on the aggression of the wave started late last Trading session). Below the #1750.80, Short-term Bullish pattern / recovery is invalidated and the Selling may be accelerated towards the Daily chart’s Higher Low's zone of #1,732.80 first then #1,712.80 Support fractal in extension.


My position: I have engaged my Buying order with #1,762.80 as an key entry point, however DX got rejected near #105.510 Support (posing as an trendline preserving the eminent crash in continuation) and current variance can stall the uptrend. Therefore, unless DX breaks the mentioned Support and continue the decline (and my order does not break #1,773.80, I will implement strict Risk management which will prevent me of going to the weekend break with engaged order.