S&P 500 touching 200 day SMA - 68% chance of rally

Since 2004
25 --> declines touch the 200 day SMA
8 --> continued into a larger correction
17 --> rebounded to some level

8/25 = 32% chance of bearish
17/25 = 68% chance bullish

Looking at the trend since 2004, it may take a week or two at these levels before it chooses its direction.



If I had to guess, this could be a likely match to today's place in the market.


20, 50, 100, 200 day SMAs