1/3/25 - $kd - it's worth a lot less... than $37
1/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
KD
it's worth a lot less... than $37
- i turn over a lot of rocks, as you guys probably guess. this one i'd never heard of until i looked thru the
SIXG etf's holdings and went "hem let's see"
- look. it's a consulting company with LSD growth and promise of really churning the FCF engine in coming years.
- i don't doubt the product is good, ppl good etc. etc. but again there's a difference between a "company" and a "stock". many ppl don't learn this, or they pay the tuition to learn it the hard way (sometimes more than once).
- so if we give this co the benefit of $500 mm in fcf in '26 (not even '25) and for MSD top line growth we say discount by 5% ("risk" free ish), you'd get $10 bn. and enterprise value is $11.5 bn and that's with heavy net debt - nearly $3 bn. so in other words, if m cap is about 8.5 bn today, to "remove" 1.5 bn (to get to the enterprise value of that hypothetical 10 bn), you'd need to haircut equity by (7/8.5 - 1) = 17%.
- and honestly, that's just being "nice". realistically a co growing this rate in this environment, esp where the stock looks to have gotten half painted into YE and half looped into the pltr-style meme move... means you're probably looking at a -20-25% move (minimally) in '25 base case. could it meme to $40... $50. brosef's... it could go to $1000. anything is possible. but most things, like that, and even $50 are unlikely. so if $50 is "amazing" and $25-30 is base case...
- "good luck". so i'm just burning a post on this to tell myself if anything it's probably more of a short than a long (tho shorting sux balls and i'd set a target at $45 b/c if/when the risk reward would be that much more obvious as a hedge). otherwise, definitely a no thank you and pass.
V
KDit's worth a lot less... than $37
- i turn over a lot of rocks, as you guys probably guess. this one i'd never heard of until i looked thru the
SIXG etf's holdings and went "hem let's see"- look. it's a consulting company with LSD growth and promise of really churning the FCF engine in coming years.
- i don't doubt the product is good, ppl good etc. etc. but again there's a difference between a "company" and a "stock". many ppl don't learn this, or they pay the tuition to learn it the hard way (sometimes more than once).
- so if we give this co the benefit of $500 mm in fcf in '26 (not even '25) and for MSD top line growth we say discount by 5% ("risk" free ish), you'd get $10 bn. and enterprise value is $11.5 bn and that's with heavy net debt - nearly $3 bn. so in other words, if m cap is about 8.5 bn today, to "remove" 1.5 bn (to get to the enterprise value of that hypothetical 10 bn), you'd need to haircut equity by (7/8.5 - 1) = 17%.
- and honestly, that's just being "nice". realistically a co growing this rate in this environment, esp where the stock looks to have gotten half painted into YE and half looped into the pltr-style meme move... means you're probably looking at a -20-25% move (minimally) in '25 base case. could it meme to $40... $50. brosef's... it could go to $1000. anything is possible. but most things, like that, and even $50 are unlikely. so if $50 is "amazing" and $25-30 is base case...
- "good luck". so i'm just burning a post on this to tell myself if anything it's probably more of a short than a long (tho shorting sux balls and i'd set a target at $45 b/c if/when the risk reward would be that much more obvious as a hedge). otherwise, definitely a no thank you and pass.
V
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.