LRCUSD is getting off her bed
מעודכן
• As LRCUSD enters Wave 5 and starts to reach for her 2nd and probably final top in this bullrun, it is worthwhile to update our post on LRCUSD.
• Trading is primarily a matter of managing one’s emotions in the context of risk-reward management. FA is a tool to identify opportunities. TA is a tool to quantify and thus visualise potential growth and areas of profit taking.
• Besides contributing to the community, sharing posts on TradingView is also a good way to document one’s thoughts so as to prevent FOMO and FUD as emotions get high near TPs.
• Back to TA, given that LRCUSD has woken up, it is now time to focus on profit taking. I don’t think LRCUSD has peaked yet, but it is good to plan ahead.
• *Assuming* we are currently in Wave 5, keep in mind that according to Elliot Wave Theory, there would be 2 intermediate peaks within Wave 5. I believe we have already seen both of them—the 1st on 5 Nov’21 and the 2nd on 8 Nov (it’s easier to see them on the 4hourly with Heikin Ashi candles).
• I’ve filled in 3 sets of Fib levels. The 1st from crypto winter (Jan’18 to Mar’20), the 2nd from Wave A-C (Feb’21 to Jul’21), and the 3rd from Wave 3-4 (2-4 Nov’21), with the more recent Fib levels being brighter in colour. Note how well these Fib levels have served as support and resistance.
• As indicated in our previous post on LRCUSD, she has been consolidating after forming her 2nd intermediate peak. This is healthy and will confirm the current resistance as support.
• My gut tells me that LRCUSD will punch through the resistance levels at around $2.81. But watch volume and momentum during this breakout.
• My gut also tells me that LRCUSD will break out of the parallel channel she has been in since Mar’20 and enter heavy resistance between $3.48 to $4.92. We should be taking profits within this region.
• Note RSI levels. **Re-evaluate TPs when LRCUSD hits *and* exceeds RSI(14) of 90% on the daily *and then* the weekly. Given how RSI is calculated, cf Wilder’s New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, this might take several days from now. Don’t burn out. Take profits on the way up **and** on the way down.
• At the same time, don’t forget fundamentals. LRCUSD’s top might be heralded by an announcement on a partnership with GME or ETH. Don’t forget LRC’s role wrt to ETH. There are interesting things happening on the ETHBTC chart.
• Trading is primarily a matter of managing one’s emotions in the context of risk-reward management. FA is a tool to identify opportunities. TA is a tool to quantify and thus visualise potential growth and areas of profit taking.
• Besides contributing to the community, sharing posts on TradingView is also a good way to document one’s thoughts so as to prevent FOMO and FUD as emotions get high near TPs.
• Back to TA, given that LRCUSD has woken up, it is now time to focus on profit taking. I don’t think LRCUSD has peaked yet, but it is good to plan ahead.
• *Assuming* we are currently in Wave 5, keep in mind that according to Elliot Wave Theory, there would be 2 intermediate peaks within Wave 5. I believe we have already seen both of them—the 1st on 5 Nov’21 and the 2nd on 8 Nov (it’s easier to see them on the 4hourly with Heikin Ashi candles).
• I’ve filled in 3 sets of Fib levels. The 1st from crypto winter (Jan’18 to Mar’20), the 2nd from Wave A-C (Feb’21 to Jul’21), and the 3rd from Wave 3-4 (2-4 Nov’21), with the more recent Fib levels being brighter in colour. Note how well these Fib levels have served as support and resistance.
• As indicated in our previous post on LRCUSD, she has been consolidating after forming her 2nd intermediate peak. This is healthy and will confirm the current resistance as support.
• My gut tells me that LRCUSD will punch through the resistance levels at around $2.81. But watch volume and momentum during this breakout.
• My gut also tells me that LRCUSD will break out of the parallel channel she has been in since Mar’20 and enter heavy resistance between $3.48 to $4.92. We should be taking profits within this region.
• Note RSI levels. **Re-evaluate TPs when LRCUSD hits *and* exceeds RSI(14) of 90% on the daily *and then* the weekly. Given how RSI is calculated, cf Wilder’s New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, this might take several days from now. Don’t burn out. Take profits on the way up **and** on the way down.
• At the same time, don’t forget fundamentals. LRCUSD’s top might be heralded by an announcement on a partnership with GME or ETH. Don’t forget LRC’s role wrt to ETH. There are interesting things happening on the ETHBTC chart.
הערה
TP1 (10%): $3.48TP2 (20%): $3.89
TP3 (30%): $4.42
TP4 (40%): $4.92
הערה
LRCUSD's price action is a very nice visual reminder of how useful Fib levels are. The daily candle will be closing in less than 3 hours, and the daily RSI has not exceeded 90% yet. There is more room for growth.הערה
Wave 20 of Wave 5(v) is completing soon. Let's watch Wave 21.הערה
• Elliott Waves are useful to visualise how price action might take place.• Fib levels suggest which price level an asset might *potentially* reach.
• RSI reflects momentum.
• I made a mistake in the above comment. Wave 20 of 5(V) has not started. We are probably still in the midst of Wave 19 of 5(v).
• Adding weight to this sub-thesis is that the RSI of the daily candle which just closed is only at 89.92%, statistically significantly lower than the previous daily peak of 92.23% on 2 Nov'21.
• Furthermore, we have some room left before the topline of the parallel channel.
• Lastly, reddit is flooding with rumous of a Loopring anouncement over the weekend. Rumours do not constitute FA, but knowledge of them is as important the hemline index. Knowledge of psychology, including evolutionary psychology, is important to traders.
הערה
Bullish pennant breaking out on the hourly? If so, this would bring us to at least $3.90.הערה
What beautiful and systematic testing of each resistance level. הערה
• This series of posts on LRCUSD started off as an ongoing attempt since Aug'21 to teach my 9yo daughter various pure math concepts. I hope no one minds my incessant updates, but it is really wonderful to see the fib levels play out in real time. • New fib levels from Wave 20. Let's break $3.2, and use it as support.
• For those with young kids, don't belittle them when they draw squiggles and lines in the sand. You never know when you might have a young trader growing up in front of you.
הערה
By the way, note the time stamps of the periods when LRCUSD consolidates/pumps. The Eastern market has held the line. It's time for the Western market to pump it. Seems that there are fans in both East and West (and people in the middle like us in Singapore).הערה
• Daily RSI has exceeded 90%.• Weekly RSI has exceeded 90%.
• However, monthly RSI is still below 88%.
• There is still some way to go, but watch the daily close in 12.5 hours' time.
הערה
TP1 met.Now verifying TP1 as support. There is beauty in mathematics.
הערה
• Resistance at $3.64 broken with ease. • Hourly RSI only at 81%. Seems that the consolidation for the past few hours is paying off.
• If there is so much momentum when the Western market has not fully woken, what will happen when everyone is awake?
הערה
• Knowledge of how we fail is as important, if not more important than how we succeed. • Note how the fib levels worked as support and resistance.
• The consolidation is expected because we are ahead of the trajectory of the flagpole (blue line) of the bullish pennant that has been giving us momentum.
הערה
• It seems that after the flagpole (blue line) of the previous bullish pennant brought us to $3.85, LRCUSD has consolidated and formed another pennant.• If this pennant breaks to the upside, this will bring us to around $4.7.
הערה
• For those sharing this analysis on Reddit, thanks! All information is useful, and I read reddit too. • Despite the recent red candles, the pump does not feel over yet.
• Zoom out, and chill.
• Even if I were to cash out, cashing out later is always better than cashing out early, given the violent and exponential nature of pumps. Does this look like a top to you?
Same scale. This was a top:
הערה
Comment: That being said, we are approaching critical levels. Let's be flexible and avoid any determinism. As reiterated several times, I'm a long-term trader. How does a few % matter when you bought in early?הערה
In the scientific spirit of hypothesis testing, if we have indeed seen the top, then this is a possible tracjectory in the short-term.הערה
• OK. LRCUSD is bouncing up from the parallel channel's topline. • If LRCUSD manages to establish a new higher high above $3.8, then the hypothesis that we have seen LRCUSD top will be invalidated.
• If so, then what LRCUSD would have done is to confirm the topline as support, and this would be extremely bullish for her.
• Be calm, and let LRCUSD show us the way. Nature to be mastered, has to be first obeyed.
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
• Unfortunately, the hypothesis that we have not seen LRCUSD top has falsified.• Remaining LRC sold at USD$3.25.
הערה
Loopring on Reddit has a very educational display of the psychology behind the H&S pattern: reddit.com/r/loopringorg/search?q=flair_name:"Daily Thread"&restrict_sr=1הערה
Comment: tradingview.com/u/sucky/ 's suggestion that we might be seeing a bull flag or a triangle is worth considering. Let's watch it play out for learning purposes.Would I jump back into LRC? Probably not. It's at most a 3X from here to $10, with lower than moderate probability of this happening. Compare this vs more than 3X for ETH, and with higher probability. It's all about one's personal risk-reward appetite. I personally would prefer to be wrong but rich.
הערה
How interesting. It's bullish for LRCUSD if she does not fall under $3. Will I buy back in LRCUSD? Probably not. It must be emotionally tough for the hodlers to see it rise and stagnate. My TPs have been reached (sort of), and jumping back in will lead to FOMO. Maintaining emotional integrity and the trading frame of mind is much more than anything else.
Furthermore, it's at most a 3X. Why FOMO in on LRCUSD, when there are other more profitable coins out there.
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