#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: 2640 - 2700 is the range. Play it. Bulls bought the trend line on Friday and are free to continue the meltup. Above 2680 I expect another try of 2700 and a possible 3rd leg (W5) up to 2800 or higher. Bears need something below 2640 for maybe retesting 2600 (the bigger bull trend line is around that price) but for now I can’t see this happening. The rally/bubble is in full force and market is finding buyers on any pullback. Weekly chart gives a good picture. Last time market stalled 3 weeks before another strong leg up.
Quote from last week:
comment: My bearish target was 2630 and low of the week was 2646, I do think that is as good of an outlook as it gets. We are still low enough to justify buying 2667 but your stop would have to be 2640. Until the bull trend line and daily 20ema are broken, market is max bullish, so look for longs.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend
key levels: 2640 - 2710 (will probably break above again)
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side and all patterns are as bullish as it gets. Bull trend line held and a buy is a decent trade right now for 2700 or higher. My target for W5 is around 2780. If bulls fail at this smaller bull trend line, the next bigger one would be around 2600 and that is probably the absolute best bears could get over the next days/weeks.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears want to break below the minor bull trend line and the daily ema. We have not touched the daily 20ema for a month so don’t expect the first touch to be a strong break below. Bears do not have good arguments for more weakness and I won’t make some up. Anything below 2640 would surprise me and odds would rise to test down 2600 but right now it’s low probability.
Invalidation is above 2710.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 2668 and now we are at 2667. Outlook. Was. Perfect. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2640 - 2670 but favoring the bulls to break above 2670 for 2700 and higher. If bears show strength below 2640, it would be a reasonable trade to try a short for 2600.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull gaps to highlight the bullishness..
tl;dr
gold: 2640 - 2700 is the range. Play it. Bulls bought the trend line on Friday and are free to continue the meltup. Above 2680 I expect another try of 2700 and a possible 3rd leg (W5) up to 2800 or higher. Bears need something below 2640 for maybe retesting 2600 (the bigger bull trend line is around that price) but for now I can’t see this happening. The rally/bubble is in full force and market is finding buyers on any pullback. Weekly chart gives a good picture. Last time market stalled 3 weeks before another strong leg up.
Quote from last week:
comment:Bulls hit 2700 as expected and we pulled back some. I do expect this pullback to become a great buying opportunity but I don’t know how far down bears can get it. Obvious magnets are the breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620.
comment: My bearish target was 2630 and low of the week was 2646, I do think that is as good of an outlook as it gets. We are still low enough to justify buying 2667 but your stop would have to be 2640. Until the bull trend line and daily 20ema are broken, market is max bullish, so look for longs.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend
key levels: 2640 - 2710 (will probably break above again)
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side and all patterns are as bullish as it gets. Bull trend line held and a buy is a decent trade right now for 2700 or higher. My target for W5 is around 2780. If bulls fail at this smaller bull trend line, the next bigger one would be around 2600 and that is probably the absolute best bears could get over the next days/weeks.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears want to break below the minor bull trend line and the daily ema. We have not touched the daily 20ema for a month so don’t expect the first touch to be a strong break below. Bears do not have good arguments for more weakness and I won’t make some up. Anything below 2640 would surprise me and odds would rise to test down 2600 but right now it’s low probability.
Invalidation is above 2710.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral and I will only look for longs in Gold. If bears show strength, I might try a small short scalp and hope for 2630 or lower and then I wait for bulls to come around again. Making money on the long side here is the way to go.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2668 and now we are at 2667. Outlook. Was. Perfect. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2640 - 2670 but favoring the bulls to break above 2670 for 2700 and higher. If bears show strength below 2640, it would be a reasonable trade to try a short for 2600.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull gaps to highlight the bullishness..
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