SPRING IS COILED
מעודכן
If you aren't long today, in anticipation of NQ breaking past 12833.00 (futures) 38% retracement level to the all time high, then I feel sorry for you. Because that implies you are short, and you will be one of the people that helps my positions 30% by next week. IF my channel is accurate, the covering will generate a 50% line at quite a level. But this makes sense. When we sold off from the top, there was some gaps and terrible areas of zero retest. Shorts got too heavy handed and we're now in some major swings. I expect the first cycle to peak in summer, maybe May - June. The final cycle (second leg) will finish end of year. But I'm dumping all long term investments Jan 2024 if this move happens because it will Wyckoff Distribution this sucker and we'll fall back to almost current levels in 2024. But after, the market should be done swinging around like a moron and be in true price balance back on the 50 yard line.
My golden line is a hypothetical fib extension for tech for all time. I believe this next move will confirm the channel by jumping to the 61.8% next, around 510 on QQQ. After some consolidation time through the summer, the final push to over 840 would begin. By over confirming the 78%, we can then fall back to the 50% without risking a true recession. Also, if we do in fact break shorts and cover right now, it will have done so on the weekly chart without retesting the 50% line before making this run, all but assuring us it was too bullish and did not properly test a very key level. Arguably, the most valuable level. But if we retest it now, we risk full recession. So we won't, we'll ignore the bad technicals and thrust up - if this works. Note, MACD will not make new highs relative to current all time high. There will be massive divergence and each new high will be less momentum. Once targets are met it will already have been losing steam since the 510 level on QQQ.
My golden line is a hypothetical fib extension for tech for all time. I believe this next move will confirm the channel by jumping to the 61.8% next, around 510 on QQQ. After some consolidation time through the summer, the final push to over 840 would begin. By over confirming the 78%, we can then fall back to the 50% without risking a true recession. Also, if we do in fact break shorts and cover right now, it will have done so on the weekly chart without retesting the 50% line before making this run, all but assuring us it was too bullish and did not properly test a very key level. Arguably, the most valuable level. But if we retest it now, we risk full recession. So we won't, we'll ignore the bad technicals and thrust up - if this works. Note, MACD will not make new highs relative to current all time high. There will be massive divergence and each new high will be less momentum. Once targets are met it will already have been losing steam since the 510 level on QQQ.
הערה
I have since dragged the main green channel slightly as one of my anchors was not on the lowest close back last year as I thought. Not a huge difference.הערה
5%+ today, 3/30 to push through the 50% retracement, hold overnight if now go up. I could see the case for 14% covering burst through today and tomorrow end of month. April is going to do the same overall. I see rapid covering kicking in today.הערה
OMG. 2% drop flush? Shorts don't give up. Could see a very low close back down to retest the 38%, which makes sense. Overnight is king. Did you know 98% of points happen in the overnight since 1998? Only 2% of profit from day hours. London exchange/international money. My thesis is still my goal, but could see one last effort down. Not sure. I have sold my contracts and am waiting for new highs or a test of that last fib.הערה
okay okay. I made a LOT of money today. And the juice is still running. I'm looking at a 12% gap and go through about Monday the 10th of April. Why? That is the next volume area and I think we'll poke just above it and then fail all the way back to 303 on QQQ, but that should be a short term bottom before the final rally to 510. As we fall we'll go sideways... I'll post another rough estimate of this action.
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