MSTX can quadruple your gains.... or losses
מעודכן
Micro-strategy has been on an absolute tear in the last few weeks, rallying several hundreds of percent.
Luckily for those with a large risk appetite , we have an ETF available to us which provides 2x the volatility of MSTR.
This can be a very dangerous play if you do not understand how to manage your risk, so I would advise extreme caution here.
With that being said, it seems like we may be seeing an MSTR pullback here into what may be a potential double bottom zone. If I continue to look for higher price on the stock, as well as Bitcoin, I would like mstx to hold up at the critical zone marked on the chart for continuation of this uptrend. Otherwise, losing this level would be quite bearish for me.
I have a few major indicators which I would like to reference.
1. Previous range value areas, notably the value area high respected before we saw the massive pump and dump.
2. Gap up zone and previous value area low should hold up if we expect continuation to the upside.
3. Trend based fib extension providing me with a potential zone for the corrective move and where it may end in confluence with the POC and VAL.
Lets see how this one plays out.
Luckily for those with a large risk appetite , we have an ETF available to us which provides 2x the volatility of MSTR.
This can be a very dangerous play if you do not understand how to manage your risk, so I would advise extreme caution here.
With that being said, it seems like we may be seeing an MSTR pullback here into what may be a potential double bottom zone. If I continue to look for higher price on the stock, as well as Bitcoin, I would like mstx to hold up at the critical zone marked on the chart for continuation of this uptrend. Otherwise, losing this level would be quite bearish for me.
I have a few major indicators which I would like to reference.
1. Previous range value areas, notably the value area high respected before we saw the massive pump and dump.
2. Gap up zone and previous value area low should hold up if we expect continuation to the upside.
3. Trend based fib extension providing me with a potential zone for the corrective move and where it may end in confluence with the POC and VAL.
Lets see how this one plays out.
עסקה פעילה
Large volume node just above $106 held up and same with the indexes, I took the long trade at $115
הערה
Also, part of the reason for my bullish bias is simply the Elliot wave corrective count of the ABC pullback of 31%.
Generally, if you see a corrective structure, this simply means the stock will rotate back to the high afterwards if we hold these lows.
If we break the low, and can count an impulse structure to the downside (12345) this would indicate more of a directional trend change to me. At the moment, the ABC pattern is respecting the trend based fib extension targets as well so I have more reason to believe a rally is more probable, UNLESS we lose the previous low of $106. I would then see us dropping to the previous range POC around $90.
הערה
This would be the impulse wave 12345
הערה
Longer term view, confluence with several trend lines, and trend based fib extension for an Elliot wave corrective structure.
הערה
Checking up on MSTR, added a few more shares at the support.
הערה
Divergence on MSTR vs MSTX, MSTR held the current low, where as MSTX broke below. Currently bouncing off the 0.618
הערה
Now that the low has been broken , I am looking for the 5 wave impulse count.
הערה
Last major buy in for me is here at the previous week VAL. Losing $75 is where things would get quite bearish.
הערה
Looking back at MSTR on the longer time frame, I still feel as though this is a corrective structure, increasing probabilities for a rotation back to the highs.
הערה
One thing I would aware of, since its an etf and devalues over time, if MSTR hits all time high, it would only bring us the the CC retracement resistance zone.
If I see a sharp bounce then I will pay close attention to the resistance zone above.
Anchored vwap, layered with the 0.618 fib retracement
הערה
Looking at the longer view on MSTR to see that this zone is by far one of the most important to hold.
Upward Trend Line, 0.618 retracement, prev range point of control, trend based fib retracement to the 0.618, Value area low of previous range, RSI hovering at support to continue uptrend. Really quite a lot of confluence. Anchored vwap is catching up too, although not as relevant just yet.
Ive also tried to count the Elliot waves for the uptrend, although Im not as familiar with the correct way to reference the waves, I still see that we may be in a 2 of 3 potential wave impulse structure as volume is increasing with this rise. Ideally what I want to see for a final wave is a higher high on price, with less overall volume. This would present as a better peak in my view.
Then again this is a very high risk play in general, keeping my risk low.
הערה
Nice 20% bounce this morning from our zone.
Currently fighting resistance at the value area high. If we get a rejection, I will be watching the POC for support. I would not like to see that area lost, as a retest of the value area low would give me a bit more bearish context now. If we are to see this as the low, the gap can fill and find support right at the POC. That would give me more confidence in a reversal.
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Closer up, here is my zone to watch
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getting the rejection as expected. Let's see what happens at the POC.
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MSTR showing us some good signs here, we dipped into the gap liquidity zone, and see clear support as we wicked below and immediately right above.
Holding this gap would be a bullish sign for me, and perhaps we don't even go as low as the POC. This would be the most bullish case. Seeing this current reaction at the gap, I would prefer to see the zone hold up. Dropping into the POC may be our first sign of weakness to pay attention to, and ultimately losing the POC would be my stop to exit the trade.
הערה
הערה
Profits taken on this 20% + move up to reduce my risk. Guaranteed profit and letting the winner run.
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Resistance zone here, I would love to see this scenario as an ideal compound long, gap fill and support flip.
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MSTR taking a big dump minutes after I post my update haha.
For this s/r flip, keep this mind. This stock tends to trade with extreme momentum. So I will want to see the reaction at the S/R level. If we start flushing, I would not want to take a trade unless I see strength to reclaim the level and move higher.
הערה
Looking at MSTX, I also feel like we can get a pullback into this zone at the POC.
Several confluence including the 0.618 retracement which for me is a high probability long trade if this is going to be a reversal. This would be a really great level to set a higher low to confirm a trend change.
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