NAS100 - Updated Market Analysis and Outlook
מעודכן
1. Overview of Market Structure and Key Phases
Phase A: Establishing the Range
Selling Climax (SC): Defined at 20,254.0, marking the exhaustion of selling pressure.
Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds from SC to approximately 20,650.5, indicating short-term bullish demand.
Secondary Test (ST): Price revisits near the SC zone to confirm support. ST is evident just above 20,254.0, validating the lower boundary of the range.
Phase B: Consolidation and Cause Building
The market is oscillating in a well-defined range, with:
Support zone: Between 20,254.0 (SC) and 20,322.1.
Resistance zone: Around 20,650.5 and 20,880.0, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels and previous highs.
The ST in Phase B indicates continued accumulation, with price preparing for a breakout.
Phase C (Anticipated Next Week)
LPS (Last Point of Support): Price is expected to retest key levels around 20,322.1 to confirm support before initiating an upward move.
Spring Potential: A brief dip below 20,254.0 may occur to trap sellers, followed by a sharp reversal (a bullish signal).
2. Key Price Levels and Volume Analysis
Support Levels
20,322.1: Major support and the current accumulation boundary.
20,254.0: Critical invalidation level; a break below signals bearish continuation.
20,219.8: Absolute support and long-term invalidation point (Wave 0 breakdown).
Resistance Levels
20,650.5: The 0.382 Fibonacci level and immediate resistance.
20,880.0: Key resistance from the horizontal volume profile, marking the top of the accumulation range.
21,033.5: A breakout level aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
21,245.7: High-probability target and Wave 1 invalidation level.
Volume Profile
Point of Control (POC): Centered near 20,257.1, indicating the area of highest trading activity and a magnet for price.
Low-Volume Gaps: Between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5, suggesting fast movement if these levels are broken.
3. Elliott Wave Analysis
Wave Progression
Wave i: Completed upward move from SC to AR (20,650.5).
Wave ii: A corrective wave that retested support near 20,322.1.
Wave iii: A projected bullish move targeting 20,880.0, with potential to extend toward 21,033.5.
Wave iv: Anticipated short correction before final upward move.
Wave v: A bullish breakout toward 21,245.7 and above.
Invalidation Levels
A failure to hold 20,254.0 invalidates the current wave structure.
A break above 21,245.7 invalidates bearish momentum and signals a shift to a long-term uptrend.
4. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Price confirms support at 20,322.1 or performs a Spring below 20,254.0, leading to:
A rally toward 20,880.0 (resistance).
Further bullish breakout to 21,033.5 and 21,245.7.
Transition into Phase D (Mark-Up) with sustained higher highs and higher lows.
Bearish Scenario
Price breaks below 20,254.0 without a recovery, leading to:
A retest of 20,219.8 (support).
Continuation of the downtrend toward new lows, invalidating the accumulation.
5. Projected Timeline
Monday to Wednesday
Price likely consolidates between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5.
Possible Spring and recovery by midweek.
Thursday to Friday
Anticipated breakout above 20,880.0, confirming bullish momentum.
Potential test of 21,033.5 and beyond.
6. Trading Recommendations
Long Positions
Entry Zones:
Near 20,322.1: On confirmation of support.
Spring setup below 20,254.0: Look for reversal signs.
Targets:
Short-term: 20,650.5.
Medium-term: 20,880.0 and 21,033.5.
Long-term: 21,245.7.
Stop-Loss: Below 20,219.8.
Short Positions
Entry Zones:
Near 20,880.0: On rejection or bearish reversal patterns.
Targets:
Short-term: 20,322.1.
Long-term: 20,254.0.
Stop-Loss: Above 21,033.5.
Phase A: Establishing the Range
Selling Climax (SC): Defined at 20,254.0, marking the exhaustion of selling pressure.
Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds from SC to approximately 20,650.5, indicating short-term bullish demand.
Secondary Test (ST): Price revisits near the SC zone to confirm support. ST is evident just above 20,254.0, validating the lower boundary of the range.
Phase B: Consolidation and Cause Building
The market is oscillating in a well-defined range, with:
Support zone: Between 20,254.0 (SC) and 20,322.1.
Resistance zone: Around 20,650.5 and 20,880.0, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels and previous highs.
The ST in Phase B indicates continued accumulation, with price preparing for a breakout.
Phase C (Anticipated Next Week)
LPS (Last Point of Support): Price is expected to retest key levels around 20,322.1 to confirm support before initiating an upward move.
Spring Potential: A brief dip below 20,254.0 may occur to trap sellers, followed by a sharp reversal (a bullish signal).
2. Key Price Levels and Volume Analysis
Support Levels
20,322.1: Major support and the current accumulation boundary.
20,254.0: Critical invalidation level; a break below signals bearish continuation.
20,219.8: Absolute support and long-term invalidation point (Wave 0 breakdown).
Resistance Levels
20,650.5: The 0.382 Fibonacci level and immediate resistance.
20,880.0: Key resistance from the horizontal volume profile, marking the top of the accumulation range.
21,033.5: A breakout level aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
21,245.7: High-probability target and Wave 1 invalidation level.
Volume Profile
Point of Control (POC): Centered near 20,257.1, indicating the area of highest trading activity and a magnet for price.
Low-Volume Gaps: Between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5, suggesting fast movement if these levels are broken.
3. Elliott Wave Analysis
Wave Progression
Wave i: Completed upward move from SC to AR (20,650.5).
Wave ii: A corrective wave that retested support near 20,322.1.
Wave iii: A projected bullish move targeting 20,880.0, with potential to extend toward 21,033.5.
Wave iv: Anticipated short correction before final upward move.
Wave v: A bullish breakout toward 21,245.7 and above.
Invalidation Levels
A failure to hold 20,254.0 invalidates the current wave structure.
A break above 21,245.7 invalidates bearish momentum and signals a shift to a long-term uptrend.
4. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Price confirms support at 20,322.1 or performs a Spring below 20,254.0, leading to:
A rally toward 20,880.0 (resistance).
Further bullish breakout to 21,033.5 and 21,245.7.
Transition into Phase D (Mark-Up) with sustained higher highs and higher lows.
Bearish Scenario
Price breaks below 20,254.0 without a recovery, leading to:
A retest of 20,219.8 (support).
Continuation of the downtrend toward new lows, invalidating the accumulation.
5. Projected Timeline
Monday to Wednesday
Price likely consolidates between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5.
Possible Spring and recovery by midweek.
Thursday to Friday
Anticipated breakout above 20,880.0, confirming bullish momentum.
Potential test of 21,033.5 and beyond.
6. Trading Recommendations
Long Positions
Entry Zones:
Near 20,322.1: On confirmation of support.
Spring setup below 20,254.0: Look for reversal signs.
Targets:
Short-term: 20,650.5.
Medium-term: 20,880.0 and 21,033.5.
Long-term: 21,245.7.
Stop-Loss: Below 20,219.8.
Short Positions
Entry Zones:
Near 20,880.0: On rejection or bearish reversal patterns.
Targets:
Short-term: 20,322.1.
Long-term: 20,254.0.
Stop-Loss: Above 21,033.5.
עסקה פעילה
עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
הערה
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?הערה
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?הערה
GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
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