NASDAQ small short idea

6 ביולי 2018

Quick one, entry and targets on chart.
Advanced harmonic.
Trendlines.
Triangle.
ABCDE elliot formation.

First trade, you can go double and leave the second one open aiming for the second drop. It will depend on how the index behaves in the following hours.

THIS IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, so manage your risk accordingly.

Good luck.

6 ביולי 2018

הערה

Almost there, earlier, i'd pass until sunday's open.

9 ביולי 2018

הערה

Pending sell at 1269, waiting...

9 ביולי 2018

עסקה פעילה

Shorted at 7242. Stop at 7342.
Same targets.

Good luck!

9 ביולי 2018

הערה

Reentered at 7285.
Stops, targets, patterns, chart, updated.

10 ביולי 2018

הערה

So far, so good.

11 ביולי 2018

הערה

China joins the party

11 ביולי 2018

הערה

Expect a bounce here, but just have patience.

12 ביולי 2018

הערה

Ok, still valid.
Bounced harder than expected on this index.
Updated view:

12 ביולי 2018

עסקה פעילה

Reentered short @ 7346

13 ביולי 2018

הערה

Stops updated to 7435 just to avoid current conditions. Still huge profit potential pre-earnings reports

13 ביולי 2018

הערה

Just to make it clear, this is my overall picture.



No, not a crash, just a range, still keeping the trend. And this is currently WAY TOO OVERBOUGHT :)

13 ביולי 2018

הערה

5th of the 5th wave. Here comes the bear.

16 ביולי 2018

הערה

Bear finally here?
NFLX numbers below expectations. Risk OFF.

20 ביולי 2018

הערה

So far risk is still low (drawdown). Short squeeze is taking longer than expected but the adaptive charts are now showing this scenario.

27 ביולי 2018

הערה

This one gone too far. Lousy timing I admit. But, given the reaction in the market at the 3 biggest tech falls in a long time, and the reaction to the GDP numbers seems like the market was already pricing in those expectations and is now in take profit mode, liquidating on a not so good future scenario with all major companies releasing awful guidances for next quarters and many of them missing at the revenue targets.
This is my position on SPX.

27 ביולי 2018

הערה

Regarding this particular trade, cost averaging I opened a total of 6 positions on the way up. 7242, 7284, 7324, 7345, 7379, 7463, a total of 6 full contracts.
For simplification on the chart, I averaged them to a single 6 contracts position at 7340. This is the current situation, and what I expect. With the counting updated and some patterns.

27 ביולי 2018

הערה

It is clear that tech is under heavy pressure. I assume a 50% of my target is easily achievable, and I'll move my stops to BE once I see a good clearance from a further drop down in order to keep it safe and also to be able to let the winners run until my last target at the bottom of the previous chart.

Nice ride nonetheless, but in this one I got too comfortable and started too early. Bad timing, something to bear in mind next time.
If you manage your risk and do as I do cost averaging your positions and starting small you can save a bad timing while managing your risk, and also prevent this kind of situation when the market is speculating on news and short squeezing.

Have a nice weekend.

Cheers

2 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

Alrite, looking good.
Wave 2 incoming?

2 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

As for my spx position, well on profit now. Everything looking according to plan now.

3 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

patience. wait for B to finish.

7 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

Quick update on this, not too much to be said. Choppiness.
Seems like the market is finding that liquidity/inventory zone and even tho it appears the uptrend will remain, i'm still sustaining my bearish bias given the current market structure across the board and earnings season into completion.
Also, Elliot wave theory might be signaling ABC correction already forming here (check b on the chart) which can potentially turn into a 2 wave completion for an impulse downward. I also charted a secondary scenario with an extended b up, higher high, with important players (fb, amzn, intc, goog, msft) showing signs of potential rollover now for some days.