Nasdaq's Rally: Is It the Right Time to Invest?

19 באוק׳ 2023

Nasdaq's Rally: Is It the Right Time to Invest?

This year has witnessed a remarkable resurgence in the financial markets, bouncing back from the bearish trends of 2022. While many are hesitant to officially declare it a bull market, the Nasdaq Composite has rebounded by more than 20% from its previous lows, strongly suggesting that it may be reentering the bull territory.

Yet, a crucial question lingers: Is it a wise decision to invest in the Nasdaq after this rapid surge in its value? The intuitive response tends to lean towards "yes" because investors often seek to ride the wave when an index is on an upswing. However, a more contrarian perspective suggests taking a step back and evaluating whether it's a safe option at this juncture.

The Nasdaq Composite, much like the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500, provides insight into the market's performance, but each offers a different perspective. The Nasdaq is notably heavy on technology stocks, meaning its performance may not necessarily align with other market indicators. Last year, amid rising inflation, all these indexes incurred losses. Notably, the Dow Jones, with its significant number of safe, established stocks, fared the best, while the Nasdaq, known for its growth-oriented stocks, faced the most significant challenges.

This year, as investors regain confidence in the economy's strength, they are shifting back toward tech and growth stocks, reversing the previous trend. An observation of historical data reveals that the Nasdaq typically experiences more significant fluctuations than the overall market due to its composition of numerous growth stocks, which inherently carry more risk than established and value stocks.

This leads us to the theory behind why some investors might be cautious about participating in a rising Nasdaq market. The concern is that it might become overvalued, with stocks reaching unsustainable heights, potentially leading to a sharp correction in the opposite direction.

Looking at the average price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq-100, a weighted index of the 100 largest Nasdaq stocks by market capitalization, it currently stands at 30. This is an increase from 23 just a year ago, aligning with the index's 40% surge over the past year. Projections from The Wall Street Journal indicate that this valuation is anticipated to decrease to 26 within the next 12 months. This projection could mean one of three things: stock prices will decline, earnings will increase, or a combination of both. It's important to note that this is merely an expectation, and there's no guarantee that it will materialize.

The Nasdaq Composite comprises approximately 2,500 stocks, which means it reflects an average performance across this vast array. While you might identify a particular stock with a more favorable combination of attributes, such as strong performance, appealing valuation, and growth potential, it's crucial to give heightened attention to valuation at this juncture. This is because there is a likelihood that some Nasdaq stocks are currently trading at overvalued levels.

If you're contemplating an investment in a Nasdaq Composite or Nasdaq-100 index fund or exchange-traded fund, it might be prudent to await a more favorable entry point. However, if your investment horizon is long-term, you should certainly consider this factor, but it becomes less of a pressing concern. Make informed decisions based on your investment goals and risk tolerance, keeping a close watch on the evolving market conditions.