Medium to long term downtrend?

30 במרץ 2020

This is not financial advice and is for educational purposes.

Looking at Fibbonacci levels over the medium term, I was originally expecting retracement to 38.2. However, now we are approaching 61.8 levels. I suspect we won't break that resistance, and NDAQ will continue to fall lower given the high VIX, the RSI trending towards overbought (not on the chart), and generally the macroeconomics moving forward. I also don't feel that the social distancing guideline extensions have been priced in. Thoughts?

2 באפר׳ 2020

הערה

Short bounce tomorrow would give you the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, which could indicate uptrend reversal to downtrend. Also check out death cross (SMA50-SMA200) on the 5 day chart which just occurred today. Continued bearish TA

4 באפר׳ 2020

הערה

Right shoulder of head and shoulders almost complete. Also notice how both the left and right shoulders are almost perfectly bouncing off of the 0.5 fib line. The stock certainly didn't move as I expected it to this week, but the TA is bearish and the torrent of bad news should start pushing this index and others lower. I feel that we will retest and break prior March lows before substantial moves up.