22 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - stance remains NEUTRAL
Yesterday we had a neutral stance for Nifty and a bearish stance for BankNifty. If you were watching every 5mts candle today, you wouldn't believe how we ended up getting Nifty at +0.01% and BankNifty down 8.75pts.
Nifty makes a beautiful rounded top formation today, will wait for tomorrow to see if we get the cup & handle formation. As soon as the day started it was pretty clear that we will not have any major movements today. The reason being absolutely low options premium on FinNifty which had expiries today.
Usually Finnifty (which is quite liquid these days) shows some excitement in options premium if a directional trend exists. And since it sucks out the liquidity from banknifty and nifty - we see jumps in their premiums as well (OTM). Since those jumps were not there today, we assumed it was going to be a flat day.
Well the data did not disappoint - we did have a flat day, but the price action was nothing as expected. Never ever thought we will get a rounded top formation.
If we look at the 1hr TF - we are still inside the falling wedge pattern. I just drew one more descending channel (orange color), the rationale being a few gaps in the prior session. See the blue circled regions, nifty failed to reach till the original trend line (blue color) in those instances. Do not worry, we will decide which one to keep by this Friday.
I am continuing my neutral stance for Nifty50 for tomorrow. If we fall below 19260 tomorrow, I will go bearish. If we take out the 19460 levels - I will go bullish.
Nifty makes a beautiful rounded top formation today, will wait for tomorrow to see if we get the cup & handle formation. As soon as the day started it was pretty clear that we will not have any major movements today. The reason being absolutely low options premium on FinNifty which had expiries today.
Usually Finnifty (which is quite liquid these days) shows some excitement in options premium if a directional trend exists. And since it sucks out the liquidity from banknifty and nifty - we see jumps in their premiums as well (OTM). Since those jumps were not there today, we assumed it was going to be a flat day.
Well the data did not disappoint - we did have a flat day, but the price action was nothing as expected. Never ever thought we will get a rounded top formation.
If we look at the 1hr TF - we are still inside the falling wedge pattern. I just drew one more descending channel (orange color), the rationale being a few gaps in the prior session. See the blue circled regions, nifty failed to reach till the original trend line (blue color) in those instances. Do not worry, we will decide which one to keep by this Friday.
I am continuing my neutral stance for Nifty50 for tomorrow. If we fall below 19260 tomorrow, I will go bearish. If we take out the 19460 levels - I will go bullish.
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