Nifty can become overbought at 17900

What I observed that whenever Nifty goes 2000 points below from recent high it enter into over sold zone and reversal signs start showing up and reversal do happen after that. After reversal Nifty again move around 2000 points upward before becoming over bought and then cycle continues. Therefore basis this assumption and while taking average of previous two up moves i am anticipating that Nifty could become overbought around 17900. Does that mean that's a upcoming high, well no it just a level basis previous movements. Nifty can cross 2000 mark and can make ATH too, no body know about what would be market dynamic at that time but going by pure number 17900 is zone where one can get alert and pay attention towards market movement and it will tend to become volatile.

What do you think about above analysis?
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