Q&A_ Why is Nifty50 still strong whereas SPX is in a bear grip?

14 ביוני 2022

Namaste!
Currently, Nifty is trading near very important levels. This was the important resistance (because of lot of consolidation happening between Jun-July 2021), which became a support after the breakout. It has been tested twice since the July breakout.
S&P 500 fell into bear market yesterday as far as daily close is considered. But, I am not convinced 100% of this happening, because Dow Jones is still hasn't got into bear market yet. I will be convinced >90% if SPX closes below 3854.90 in weekly chart.

Q: Why is Nifty still strong as compared to US markets.
A: 1st reason is that, the fund houses, hedge funds, investors and FIIs may be moving money from weak US markets to comparably strong Indian markets. 2nd reason is that since it is a very strong support, market have to consolidate a little before moving below (15600 Nifty level).

Q: Will we see bear market in Nifty soon?
A: Well, if DJI slips into bear market too, then there is a very high probability that we will.

Q: Should we wait for a bear market to start investing?
A: NO. There are many stocks in Sensex and Nifty which became undervalued due to this bearish plunge. You should to find such stocks and get into it without waiting for more downfall.

Disclaimer: I am not an expert or professional degree holder into the field of investing. The views and analysis I have shared is of my own, based on my understanding. Please do your own due diligence before any activity.

15 ביוני 2022

הערה

US Markets as well as Indian markets are waiting for US FED interest rates hike. The meeting is scheduled on 15th June 2022. It is a very important event for this month.

30 בנוב׳ 2022

הערה

Nifty 50 and Banknifty is hitting all time high, mainly because the foreign investors are pushed by fear (to park their money to some better place, like India). China has tension, Europe has tension, hence India is in the sweet spot. India is also a good option due to its cheap labour.
Once the tensions in China and Europe solved, Nifty 50 might be the most crashed market among global ones.

19 ביולי 2023

הערה

India is a good market for reason 1. its cheap labour, 2. its huge population (as a consumer), 3. its comparably more welcoming government than china (as China isn't a democracy and they stand against capitalism sometimes). 4. movement of Indian population from rural to urban areas (due to increasing literacy rates, reducing poverty, etc). If you see the top 10 companies by market cap, 8 out of 10 are from US. Google, Meta are banned from China, Tesla has bigger competition in China, etc. These companies depend on India because Indians are very big consumers for them.

23 בנוב׳ 2023

הערה

I expect anyone who is reading my writings to know that there is nothing "certain" in the markets. Neither the %gain on stock nor "out-performance" or "under-performance". There is a risk and opportunity cost involved in both, buying and selling. Selling at any price can often result in "opportunity loss" when the stock moves higher and higher. Human psychology is a culprit here. For e.g. I post any stock which seems undervalued or overvalued to me on tradingview. When anyone makes money on that, they wont appreciate me "a single word". But when they lose or it results in opportunity loss, they are bound to blame me. I don't criticize any person, because I know their psychology has defeated them. At last, there is nothing like "easy money" in the markets. The survival of the fittest holds absolutely true here.

30 בנוב׳ 2023

הערה

One other example of a culprit human psychology. I am short on Nifty50, so I started looking for reasons of market falling. I found that there is a pneumonia outbreak in China recently. It felt me happy because I was short on Nifty50 and it may result in falling market (correction). But, is it humane? Praying to god to make people die, just to make some money in the short position? It felt really bad after realizing this. May be that's why the god made bull markets more often and more lasting (time) than bear markets. Pessimism is short-lived whereas optimism lives longer. Optimism always wins in the long term. Take for instance a glass half-filled with water. You can't get or achieve anything seeing it half-empty. But, you surely achieve something seeing it "half-full".

30 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

I am not a financial expert and everything I am saying is based on my understanding and opinion. Take everything I am writing as a grain of salt. You must consider your financial advisor before taking any actions. DJI and Nifty50 have hit all time high, whereas S&P 500 did not yet. I did not make anything substantial in the year 2020 by buying at a discount. And I think many of the investors couldn't have as well. Anyways, lets calculate the returns of DJI, SPX & Nifty50 since Dec 2020 till Dec 2023. DJI +23.14%, SPX 26.98% & Nifty 50 +55.42%. Now subtract them with FD rates (India has 7% and I don't know about USA, lets take 3%). So, after deducting FD returns for 3 years, DJI +14.14%, SPX +17.98% & Nifty50 +34.42%. -10% correction is more often than -20% corrections. So, let's take -10% correction every 1-2 years and -20% correction every 2-4 years. My point here is, markets hitting all time high, it's very good, but you can not rule out corrections. If, by any chance we could buy at correction (say 19-30%), we would be standing at the same level as the guy who bought on 31 Dec 2020. But, it's a tough nut to crack for most people. Do you think money makes money in the market? Then, you're wrong. Patience makes money in the market. It's not a sell advice either. The point I want to make is, when we're patient enough, the market have a very big heart and it might give us another chance to buy. But, it demands one thing for sure, "patience".