Nifty 50 Indexשורט
NIFTY ANALYSIS AND INTRADAY PICKS
NIFTY ON 21-11-2022
Beginning with a Gap-down Index continued to show weakness and failed to hold 18200.
With support coming from no vital index NIFTY fell to day low of 18133 which is near the support level of 18118.
Though there was a pull back rally towards 18200 the selling pressure was visible at higher levels which dragged the Index towards 18135.
IT and METAL remained the worst hit as these lost 1.55% and 0.81 % respectively.
Index closed at 18159.95 with a loss of 0.81%.
Technical View : (Daily Chart)
NIFTY has made a strong Bearish candle which indicates the further probable weakness from current levels.
NIFTY is moving above EMA 21, 34 but below EMA 13. However, EMA 34< EMA21<EMA13 is still intact which can be interpreted as the short term trend is reversing and mid term positive trend is intact.
RSI has fallen to 57.16 from 63.91. RSI below 60 is an obvious matter of concern as the momentum is lost.
Support and Resistance: Daily Chart
18135-18100 will work as first support level for NIFTY. Below this 18040 will work as strong support level.
18210-260 will work as resistance. Above this 18310 will hod strong resistance for the Index.
View for Traders:
Right now there is no strong signal coming in the favour of the Bulls. All the signals are indicating that Index may fall further.
Let us have a look at these:
1. The COVID Situation in China is getting worrisome.
2. There are concerns over the Hawkish approach of Fed.
3. The selling by FIIs is continued.
4. Technically Index looks weak as we have discussed in the former section of the Blog.
An interesting fact is there which may be a topic of further discussion as some of the readers may agree and some may not.
The price of crude oil is cooling down. In general, this stands as a positive indicator for the Equity Markets. However, as of now the same phenomenon may be taken in other manner.
The cooling down in prices of Crude despite all the efforts taken by OPEC+ ( As we all are aware of the fact that OPEC+ countries had made a decision to cut the production last month) indicates that there is a reduction in demand and it leads to the conclusion that a recession is at hand.
So keeping all these factors, which are not in favour of the Bulls , I am of the view that Index will remain weak in upcoming sessions.
There could be some short covering or pull back rally but the sustainability will always be under the suspicion.
So, we arrive at the ultimate question and that is what do on 22nd November 2022.
In my view, under present circumstances Sell on rise seems to be the best strategy.
Hence, Sell NIFTY at first resistance level i.e. in the range of 18210-260 for a target of 18150-18110. SL may be put above 18310 on closing basis.
It is worth mentioning over here that buyer should wait for the Index to reach near 18040 which will work as a demand zone. The target will be 18110-18150. SL may be put below 18000 on closing basis.
INTRADAY PICKS
1. ORIENT ELECTRIC LIMITED
Buy in the range of 278-278.30
Target 284
SL 274
2. SHRIRAM TRANSPORT
Buy in the range of 1312-1315
Target 1339
SL 1300
Beginning with a Gap-down Index continued to show weakness and failed to hold 18200.
With support coming from no vital index NIFTY fell to day low of 18133 which is near the support level of 18118.
Though there was a pull back rally towards 18200 the selling pressure was visible at higher levels which dragged the Index towards 18135.
IT and METAL remained the worst hit as these lost 1.55% and 0.81 % respectively.
Index closed at 18159.95 with a loss of 0.81%.
Technical View : (Daily Chart)
NIFTY has made a strong Bearish candle which indicates the further probable weakness from current levels.
NIFTY is moving above EMA 21, 34 but below EMA 13. However, EMA 34< EMA21<EMA13 is still intact which can be interpreted as the short term trend is reversing and mid term positive trend is intact.
RSI has fallen to 57.16 from 63.91. RSI below 60 is an obvious matter of concern as the momentum is lost.
Support and Resistance: Daily Chart
18135-18100 will work as first support level for NIFTY. Below this 18040 will work as strong support level.
18210-260 will work as resistance. Above this 18310 will hod strong resistance for the Index.
View for Traders:
Right now there is no strong signal coming in the favour of the Bulls. All the signals are indicating that Index may fall further.
Let us have a look at these:
1. The COVID Situation in China is getting worrisome.
2. There are concerns over the Hawkish approach of Fed.
3. The selling by FIIs is continued.
4. Technically Index looks weak as we have discussed in the former section of the Blog.
An interesting fact is there which may be a topic of further discussion as some of the readers may agree and some may not.
The price of crude oil is cooling down. In general, this stands as a positive indicator for the Equity Markets. However, as of now the same phenomenon may be taken in other manner.
The cooling down in prices of Crude despite all the efforts taken by OPEC+ ( As we all are aware of the fact that OPEC+ countries had made a decision to cut the production last month) indicates that there is a reduction in demand and it leads to the conclusion that a recession is at hand.
So keeping all these factors, which are not in favour of the Bulls , I am of the view that Index will remain weak in upcoming sessions.
There could be some short covering or pull back rally but the sustainability will always be under the suspicion.
So, we arrive at the ultimate question and that is what do on 22nd November 2022.
In my view, under present circumstances Sell on rise seems to be the best strategy.
Hence, Sell NIFTY at first resistance level i.e. in the range of 18210-260 for a target of 18150-18110. SL may be put above 18310 on closing basis.
It is worth mentioning over here that buyer should wait for the Index to reach near 18040 which will work as a demand zone. The target will be 18110-18150. SL may be put below 18000 on closing basis.
INTRADAY PICKS
1. ORIENT ELECTRIC LIMITED
Buy in the range of 278-278.30
Target 284
SL 274
2. SHRIRAM TRANSPORT
Buy in the range of 1312-1315
Target 1339
SL 1300
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