NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jun26-30)
מעודכן
SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a -1.37% loss last week after trading in a range of 343 points.
• NQ found resistance at the 1.272 Fib X and pulled back last week.
• NQ may need to consolidate before moving higher.
• NQ only 12.03% off its ATH.
• Every sector closed red on the week. Strongest sectors were XLV, XLY & XLP. Weakest were
XLE, XLK & XLRE
• Slight rotation last week back into defensive sectors
• Stock above their 200 SMAs dropped from 52% to 45% last week.
• Long term bias is now bullish but, market is currently digesting the recent gains.
• Still potential for NQ to re-test the Aug 16th breakout point.
• VIX is in the TRIM zone (13.43). Remains exceptionally low.
• Buy the Dip has returned as the ATH is now in play.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday CAN CPI, US Durable Goods, US CB Consumer confidence & US New Home Sales
Wednesday EIA Crude Inventories & Fed’s Powell speaks.
Thursday Us Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP
Friday US PCE , US personal Income & US Personal Consumption
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday CCL
Tuesday JEF, WBA
Wednesday GIS, MU
Thursday AYI, MKC, NKE, PYX
Friday STZ
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above the 1.13 Fib Extension
NQ above the longer term 618 Fib RT
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
The longer term 886 Fib retracement is now the price magnet
In a technical bull market. (Above LT 618 Fib RT)
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
Buy the dip is back in style
Potential positive reaction to PCE and Fed talk.
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the 1.27 Fib X / 786 Fib Retracement
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 14 (sell zone)
Aug 16th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to PCE and Fed Head talk
Potential shock event (more bank failures or war)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon (lower volumes)
• Nasdaq posted a -1.37% loss last week after trading in a range of 343 points.
• NQ found resistance at the 1.272 Fib X and pulled back last week.
• NQ may need to consolidate before moving higher.
• NQ only 12.03% off its ATH.
• Every sector closed red on the week. Strongest sectors were XLV, XLY & XLP. Weakest were
XLE, XLK & XLRE
• Slight rotation last week back into defensive sectors
• Stock above their 200 SMAs dropped from 52% to 45% last week.
• Long term bias is now bullish but, market is currently digesting the recent gains.
• Still potential for NQ to re-test the Aug 16th breakout point.
• VIX is in the TRIM zone (13.43). Remains exceptionally low.
• Buy the Dip has returned as the ATH is now in play.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday CAN CPI, US Durable Goods, US CB Consumer confidence & US New Home Sales
Wednesday EIA Crude Inventories & Fed’s Powell speaks.
Thursday Us Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP
Friday US PCE , US personal Income & US Personal Consumption
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday CCL
Tuesday JEF, WBA
Wednesday GIS, MU
Thursday AYI, MKC, NKE, PYX
Friday STZ
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above the 1.13 Fib Extension
NQ above the longer term 618 Fib RT
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
The longer term 886 Fib retracement is now the price magnet
In a technical bull market. (Above LT 618 Fib RT)
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
Buy the dip is back in style
Potential positive reaction to PCE and Fed talk.
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the 1.27 Fib X / 786 Fib Retracement
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 14 (sell zone)
Aug 16th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to PCE and Fed Head talk
Potential shock event (more bank failures or war)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon (lower volumes)
הערה
Late first update as I have been away for a few days. NQ_F found support just above the daily 21 ema on Monday and traders have been buying the dip the past few days. After pushing back through the 9 ema price is now re-testing that level this morning on a mix of data. GDP up. PCE down and bank stress test passed. Look for support to hold at the 9 ema. If it fails a test of the 21 ema is likely. 
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